7 – 18 November 2022
We’ve added uncertainty metrics for financial markets and the macroeconomic outlook as calculated by Sydney Ludvigson, professor of economics at New York University and a co-director of the National Bureau of Economic Research Asset Pricing Program.
Her methodology in creating these metrics can be found in this research paper:
In the chart below, we calculated the average value, high-low range and percentiles for the indices on a historic basis, and compared them with the most recent value available (June 2022). While financial market uncertainty is historically high (a bit above the 80t percentile), broader macro uncertainty is even higher when compared with historic norms.
US Macro and Financial Uncertainty Indices
We’ve expanded our real estate coverage for Japan with the addition of office rental prices from Sanko Estate.
The dataset covers Tokyo, Osaka, Sendai, Nagoya, Fukuoka, and Sapporo and is also broken down by city districts.
In the chart below, we looked at the year-on-year percentage change of rental prices in Tokyo. It appears that variation depends on the office size: larger buildings have been penalized the most since the beginning of the pandemic, and still are displaying negative growth year on year.
Sanko Office Market Data
We’ve added macroeconomic expectations from the central bank. Various macroeconomic variables are available.
In the chart below, we focus on 12- and 24-month inflation expectations and compare them with IMF forecasts. A rapid slowdown is anticipated over the next year, but inflation will remain historically high for the coming 24 months.
Economic Variables Expectations Survey (EVE)
We’ve expanded our data coverage with the addition of foreign-held debt, broken down by country, sourced from the National Bank of Angola.
The chart below tracks ownership since 2012. Chinese investors currently hold almost half of Angola’s foreign debt. The second-largest holders are U.K.-based investors, whose percentage share has increased significantly since 2018.
External Public Debt by Country
Country & Region > Angola [ao, Region] > Foreign Finance [fofi, Category] > Foreign Debt > By Country
Angola
External Public Debt by Country
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Domestic Trade, Retail Trade Turnover Indices (Volume and Value)
Dominican Republic
Balance of Payments – Primary Income
Consolidated Public Debt by Sector (Quarterly)
Euro Area
ECB Macro economic projections - Fiscal stance
Europe
Physical Flow Indicators – Gas TSO UA, Sudzha/Ukraine, Entry, Russia
Israel
National Accounts, Production Approach, Arts, Entertainment & Recreation, Other Service Activities, Activities of Households as Employers
Country & Region > Israel [il, Region] > National Accounts [naac, Category] > Production Approach
Japan
Sanko Office Market Data
Kyrgyzstan
Consumer Price Index by COICOP (2005=100)
Malawi
Public Debt (Annual)
Country & Region > Malawi [mw, Region] > Government & Public Finance [gpfi, Category] > Public Debt
Malaysia
Banking System: Loan to Fund Ratio, Loan to Fund & Equity Ratio & Outstanding Surplus Liquidity Placed with Bank Negara Malaysia
New Zealand
RBNZ Business Expectations Survey – Official Cash Rate
Norway
Financial Accounts
Oman
International Reserves, Foreign Exchange Reserves
Country & Region > Oman [om, Region] > Foreign Finance [fofi, Category] > International Reserves
Paraguay
Economic Variables Expectations Survey (EVE)
Country & Region > Paraguay [py, Region] > Surveys & Leading Indicators [surv, Category] > Economic Surveys > Central Bank of Paraguay > Economic Variables Expectations Survey (EVE)
Poland
Raw Milk Prices
Oilseeds Prices
Portugal
Justice Statistics (Declared Insolvencies & Case Flow)
Serbia
Bank Claims on Non-Monetary Sector
Deposits & Loans, Banks, Claims, By Entity, to Households
Singapore
Reserves Management Government Securities
South Korea
Financial Stability Report
Spain
Banking Statistics, Interest Rates
Tunisia
Budget of State
Outstanding Public Debt
Country & Region > Tunisia [tn, Region] > Government & Public Finance [gpfi, Category] > Public Debt
Turkey
Credit Card Usage
United States
Income, Wealth & Labor Inequality
US Macro and Financial Uncertainty Indexes
World
UNCTAD
Nowcasts