Europe

We’ve just added daily air traffic data from Eurocontrol. A pan-European, civil-military organisation dedicated to supporting European aviation. The dataset covers 41 countries, with an history starting in January 2019.

In the chart below, we looked at the 7 countries with highest traffic (+ Sweden), aggregated the daily data to a weekly rolling sum, and rebased all series so that their individual average for 2019 equals 100.

After a positive trend during the summer following the ease of restrictions, air traffic took another hit in the past weeks with the resurgence of local restrictions, combined with a new virus strain that has already led to travel-bans from Southern Africa. It is now down30 to 40% compared to its average level in 2019.

Canada

For Canada, we’ve added a new dataset from Statistics Canada: the Real-Time Local Business Conditions Index (RTLBCI). The dataset covers the 6 largest Canadian cities with weekly data. The purpose of this index is to provide a real-time signal on business activities, following the disruptions brought by the pandemic and throught he recovery.

More information on the methodology can be consulted here.

France

For France, as the Presidential Election is coming in about six months from now, we’ve added the most recent polls data from Ipsos.

While looking at the chart below, please keep in mind that not all the candidates have announced yet their candidacy. The right-party ‘Les Républicains’ still need to officialize its candidate too (X.Bertrand, V. Pécresse, and M. Barnier have announced their intention to participate to the internal run-off).

But as of now, most of the debate focuses on the pending decision from Eric Zemmour, a writer and tv-polemist, regarding his candidacy. According to the Ipsos data, he is currently credited of 8% of voting intentions for the 1st round. However, these figures should be taken most carefully since he hasn’t officialized his candidacy. To add further, the sensitive nature of his candidacy might create some unwillingness to reveal the true voting intentions from the respondents. Some people could see here a parallel to Donald Trump’s campaign in 2016.

In the chart below, we looked at voting intentions for the 1st round, and tried to measure how Eric Zemmour can impact the elections if he announces his candidacy. Not so much of a surprise so far as the largest losers would be Marine Le Pen – the far-right candidate – and the right party ‘Les Républicains’ .

Malaysia

For Malaysia, we’ve added more breakdowns and classification types for Industrial Production.

In the chart below, we took the 130 items classified per industry codes and created a diffusion index. As of September, around 52% of these components were increasing on a year-on-year basis. These components actually represented 40% of the Industrial Production’s weight (2nd pane).

Note for the users: to create a diffusion index in a few clicks, we used Lists. This chart can only be open with Macrobond 1.24 and above.