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Oct 9
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Oct 20, 2023

Israeli inflation and New Zealand's budget

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New data flows from Serbian loans to Czech trade
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Oct 9
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Oct 20, 2023

Highlights

Israel

We’ve added more of the survey- and calculation-based inflation expectations released by the Bank of Israel. New series include one-year expectations derived from inflation contracts, economic surveys for three to five years out, and calculations involving major banks’ interest rates.

In the chart below, our upper pane plots Israel’s CPI against the high-low range of three data points (the grey belt) corresponding to different 12-month inflation expectations at the time. 

The chart shows that inflation expectations a year out have often tended to track current CPI trends. 

In the lower pane, we plot the difference between the current actual CPI and the ‘high’ of the 3 CPI forecasts for the year ahead. The current negative reading indicates that expectations are factoring in declining inflation.

New Zealand

We’ve added the government’s most recent economic and budgetary forecasts (released a month ago as a pre-election update) to our public finance dataset. 

In the chart below, we chart the yearly evolution of the government’s revenue against its expenses as a percentage of GDP – followed by predictions through 2027 from both the pre-election budgetary update and the forecast that preceded it. The data point “bubble” size represents gross debt in NZD. 

The fiscal damage from COVID-19 is profoundly visible in the trajectory from 2019 to 2020. The gross debt “bubble” size starts visibly increasing from 2022, growing substantially by 2027 in both rounds of forecasts. 

Both forecasts also predict continued growth in government revenue as a percentage of GDP, though the pre-budget forecast is showing a slightly smaller increase than its predecessor. It’s notable that the previous forecast accurately predicted 2023 spending as a proportion of GDP, but significantly undershot income on that basis as a slowing global economy reduced tax revenue. In line with the pre-election update’s forecast for a wider budget deficit in fiscal 2024, projected expenses as a share of GDP were revised upward. 

Since this forecast was released, New Zealand’s conservative opposition defeated the incumbent Labour government. The National party has promised tax cuts, so look for their first budget forecasts to differ from this chart. 

Full listing

Austria

Number of Banks by Sector

Country & Region > Austria [at, Region] > Money, Banking & Credit [bank, Category] > Number of Monetary Financial Institutions > Banks

Building & Loan Associations

Country & Region > Austria [at, Region] > Money, Banking & Credit [bank, Category] > Deposits & Loans > Building & Loan Associations

Chile

Expansion of Special CPI Series Dataset

Country & Region > Chile [cl, Region] > Prices [pric, Category] > Consumer Price Index > Special Series  

China

Auto Sales, Retail & Wholesale

Country & Region > China [cn, Region] > Trade [trad, Category] > Domestic Trade > Vehicle Sales & Registrations > Sales of Automobile Industry > Summary  

China Bulk Merchandise Index (CBMI)

Country & Region > China [cn, Region] > Commodities & Energy [caes, Category] > Commodity Indices > China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing > China Bulk Merchandise Index (CBMI)

Domestic Trade, Retail Sales of Consumer Goods

Country & Region > China [cn, Region] > Trade [trad, Category] > Domestic Trade > Retail Trade > National > Totals  

Czech Republic

Banks Balance Sheet 

Country & Region > Czech Republic [cz, Region] > Money, Banking & Credit [bank, Category] > Balance Sheet & Flows of MFI Sector > Banks  

Industrial Sales – Domestic & Foreign 

Country & Region > Czech Republic [cz, Region] > Production [prod, Category] > Industrial Summary > Industrial Sales  

Foreign Trade – Country Breakdown 

Country & Region > Czech Republic [cz, Region] > Trade [trad, Category] > Foreign Trade > Countries (National Concept)

Israel

Expansion of Inflationary Expectations Dataset

Country & Region > Israel [il, Region] > Surveys & Leading Indicators [surv, Category] > Economic Surveys > Bank of Israel > Inflationary Expectations > Total   

Malaysia

Overnight Rate (MYOR)

Country & Region > Malaysia [my, Region] > Interest & Exchange Rates [rate, Category] > Interbank Rates > Overnight Interbank Rate   

New Zealand

Pre-Election Budget Economic & Fiscal Update

Country & Region > New Zealand [nz, Region] > Forecasts [fcst, Category] > New Zealand Treasury > Pre-Election Government Budget   

Peru

Financial Account, Direct Investment  

Country & Region > Peru [pe, Region] > Balance of Payments [bopa, Category] > Financial Account   

Poland

MFIs Holdings of Debt Securities

Country & Region > Poland [pl, Region] > Money, Banking & Credit [bank, Category] > Deposits & Loans > MFIs > Securities > MFIs Holdings of Debt Securities  

Government Operations

Country & Region > Mauritius [mu, Region] > Government & Public Finance [gpfi, Category] > Central Government

Serbia

Total Nonperforming Loans

Country & Region > Serbia [rs, Region] > Money, Banking & Credit [bank, Category] > Deposits & Loans > Banking System > Non-Performing Loans

Sweden

Extended Granularity Within Domestic Producer Price Index 

Country & Region > Sweden [se, Region] > Prices [pric, Category] > Producer Price Index

United Kingdom

Sub-National House Prices - East Midlands

Country & Region > United Kingdom [gb, Region] > Construction & Real Estate [cons, Category] > Real Estate > Real Estate Prices > Residential > Prices > U.K. Office for National Statistics (ONS) > Regional > East Midlands

Sub-National House Prices - East of England

Country & Region > United Kingdom [gb, Region] > Construction & Real Estate [cons, Category] > Real Estate > Real Estate Prices > Residential > Prices > U.K. Office for National Statistics (ONS) > Regional > East of England

Sub-National House Prices - South East

Country & Region > United Kingdom [gb, Region] > Construction & Real Estate [cons, Category] > Real Estate > Real Estate Prices > Residential > Prices > U.K. Office for National Statistics (ONS) > Regional > South East

Sub-National House Prices - South West

Country & Region > United Kingdom [gb, Region] > Construction & Real Estate [cons, Category] > Real Estate > Real Estate Prices > Residential > Prices > U.K. Office for National Statistics (ONS) > Regional > South West

United States

Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index on Inflation, Interest Rates & Stock Prices - US

Country & Region > United States [us, Region] > Surveys & Leading Indicators [surv, Category] > Consumer Surveys > Conference Board > Consumer Confidence Index > Inflation, Interest Rates & Stock Prices

Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index on Inflation, Interest Rates & Stock Prices - World

Source & Release > World [world, Region] > Conference Board > Consumer Confidence Survey > Inflation, Interest Rates & Stock Prices

CBOE S&P 500 5% Put Protection Index (PPUT)

Country & Region > United States [us, Region] > Equity Market [eqma, Category] > Equity Indices > CBOE 

World

EPFR Equity by sectors

EPFR > Monthly Aggregate Fund Flows & Additional Filters EM Equity Funds > EPFR Global Monthly Additional Filters [rel_epfrafm, Release] > Emerging Markets > Asia ex Japan > China > Sector

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