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How much can a divided Washington shape the U.S. economy and financial markets? This edition of Macro Trends explores the implications of the 2026 midterm elections, examining fiscal pressures, trade policy, defense spending and AI investment. Through key economic and market indicators, the charts assess where political shifts could influence policy—and where economic fundamentals may matter more.
This edition of Macro Moves examines how financial markets react to U.S. elections, drawing on nearly a century of presidential and midterm results. The analysis explores how elections influence stock market returns, volatility and the relationship between stocks and bonds.
It also investigates whether initial market reactions offer clues about future performance, how quickly volatility subsides, and whether election-related movements represent lasting shifts or temporary departures from normal market behaviour.
