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This edition of Macro Trends examines the roots of the K-shaped U.S. economy, where strong headline growth and market performance can mask sharply different experiences across households. The analysis traces today’s divide through decades of data on productivity and real wages, the rising cost of necessities, consumer confidence, wealth concentration and asset ownership. It explores why gains from economic and equity market growth have accrued unevenly across income, wealth and generational groups—and how these structural differences help explain the widening gap between market performance and household sentiment.
This edition of Macro Moves puts one of the market’s most persistent seasonal patterns to the test: the September effect. Drawing on nearly a century of S&P 500 history, the analysis examines whether September really is an unusually weak month for equities—or whether its reputation is simply the product of chance.
Using more than 20 measures of performance and risk, alongside different historical samples and evidence from equity markets around the world, the edition tests how consistently the effect holds up. It also explores the theories behind September’s weakness, whether the pattern creates an investment opportunity, and the surprising area where September stands out: its relationship with full-year market returns.
