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This edition of Macro Trends examines how rising volatility is reshaping the metals landscape—without undermining the underlying macro signals. Gold and silver continue to stand out as the clearest expressions of ownership demand, with volatility absorbed rather than disorderly even as pricing grows more asymmetric.

Across industrial metals, the cycle remains fragmented. Copper and aluminium stay supported, consistent with upstream reflation, while energy still delivers the more direct inflation pass-through. At the same time, China’s demand impulse remains constrained—transmitted through cyclicals rather than construction—keeping the breadth of the signal capped.

Together, these charts map where volatility is altering market behavior, where signals remain intact, and how metals continue to differentiate across ownership, inflation transmission, and regional demand dynamics.

This edition of Macro Moves analyzes the limited price response in crude oil following recent developments in a major producing economy through the lens of market structure and expectations. The report examines changes in effective supply, production capacity, and spare capacity, alongside futures curve dynamics and market-implied oil risk premia. By placing current pricing behavior in a historical context, the analysis illustrates how shifts in global supply diversification and pre-priced risk have altered oil’s sensitivity to external shocks, and what current term structures imply for market expectations into 2026.