This edition of Macro Moves puts one of the market’s most persistent seasonal patterns to the test: the September effect. Drawing on nearly a century of S&P 500 history, the analysis examines whether September really is an unusually weak month for equities—or whether its reputation is simply the product of chance.
Using more than 20 measures of performance and risk, alongside different historical samples and evidence from equity markets around the world, the edition tests how consistently the effect holds up. It also explores the theories behind September’s weakness, whether the pattern creates an investment opportunity, and the surprising area where September stands out: its relationship with full-year market returns.
This edition of Macro Moves explores how South Korea is evolving from a traditional emerging-market proxy into one of the world's most important AI investment stories. As semiconductors transform the country's economy and equity market, investor behavior is beginning to diverge from the broader emerging-market universe. Using fund flows, market correlations, export trends, market concentration and valuations, the analysis examines whether South Korea's changing role is fully reflected in how markets price the opportunity—and the risks.
This edition of Macro Moves examines one of today's biggest investment questions: is U.S. exceptionalism fading? Through global equity performance, risk-adjusted returns, sector dynamics and historical market regimes, it explores how America's market leadership is changing, where international competition is strengthening, and what a more balanced global market could mean for investors.
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This edition of Macro Moves examines how artificial intelligence is moving from innovation story to economic reality. Using hiring data, labor market indicators and proprietary analysis, it explores where AI adoption is gaining traction, which occupations are under pressure, and how the technology is reshaping workforce dynamics across the economy.
This edition of Macro Moves explores how the global fertilizer crisis has re-emerged as a critical macro story - where energy markets, Middle Eastern geopolitics and food security now intersect.
This edition of Macro Moves explores how renewed energy market disruptions are reshaping inflation dynamics and market behavior, as oil shocks revive comparisons to the 1970s. From stagflation risks and inflation patterns to cross-asset reactions and post-spike market performance, it reveals the data behind energy-driven volatility and the signals shaping today’s macro landscape.
