United States

Inflation remains a topic of global importance. We’ve added a new dataset from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York capturing “inflation persistence.” Information on its methodology can be accessed here.

In the chart below, we consider the impact of data revisions on the model. The Bureau of Economic Analysis significantly revised personal consumption expenditure (PCE) figures on Feb. 9, notably for the last three months of 2022. 

Our first pane shows the impact of these changes on inflation persistence: it was revised upwards, indicating that the moderation expected in the second half of 2022 was less impactful than previously believed. And even worse for “team transitory,” inflation persistence has been increasing again since November 2022. 

In the second pane, we display the month-on-month contribution by sector aggregates. Housing was the main contributor throughout 2022, but increased inflation persistence in January 2023 was driven by goods and non-housing services.  

Latvia

We’ve added a range of alternative data for the Baltic nation, including card payment statistics (available in a weekly or monthly frequency) from the central bank. 

In the chart below, we break down what people are paying for with their cards. We rebase these payment types to 100 at the chart’s inception to compare how trends evolved.

The trend for car rentals was so striking that it deserved a second pane. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, transactions have increased fifteen- to twenty-fold. Spending on lodging, repair services and service providers have also seen significant increases since February 2022.  

United Kingdom 

We’ve expanded our data coverage from HomeLet with the addition of housing rental prices for London boroughs.

In the chart below, we track rents since September 2020. There is an initial slump during the second wave of national lockdowns. But on average, they have increased by 20 percent across all 21 London boroughs in less than three years.

Of course, neighbourhoods diverge: rents are up more than 34 percent in Westminster, but are just 5 percent higher in Lambeth. The common trend, however, is a mostly simultaneous price acceleration among boroughs in the second half of 2022 – which seems to have been followed by a relatively uniform slowdown. 

Embraer (Brazil / Aviation)

We’ve added data on aircraft deliveries from Embraer SA, extracted from the Brazilian company’s financial statements. 

In the chart below, we break down deliveries by aircraft type. The company’s total deliveries have fallen over the past 10 years – and especially since the pandemic – mainly driven by the decrease for commercial airliners. Commercial aviation represents 35 percent of total deliveries, down from more than 50 percent in 2012. Private-jet deliveries have fared better.