South Korea

We’ve added the Export Business Survey Index (EBSI), a quarterly release of sentiment broken down by industry and sub-industry. 

In the chart below, we created a diffusion index using the 15 sub-industry groups, counting the percentage of sectors reporting improving expectations year-on-year. We then compared it with total export growth, which has been in negative territory recently. 

As the survey is forward-looking (i.e., a Q2 survey result is already available), we can use the diffusion index as a leading indicator for foreign trade. The recent rebound in exporters’ optimism may well be reflected in improved export figures.  

United States

We’ve added a dataset from Opportunity Insights that tracks consumer spending. It can be broken down by type of spending and income quartile (based on consumers’ ZIP codes). 

In the chart below, we track the evolution of consumer behaviour since the pandemic: spending variables are measured relative to the period from Jan. 6 to Feb. 2, 2020. We displayed the current week’s change since then, as well as the average weekly change in 2023 versus January 2020. 

Spending increased across all categories except for transportation. However, we can also note different behaviour depending on income. For most categories, consumers living in the lowest median income areas (1st quartile) have increased their spending the most. Healthcare is a notable exception.

Italy

We’ve added a dataset from the Italian Regulatory Authority for Energy, Networks & Environment (ARERA) on natural-gas prices charged to consumers. 

In the chart below, we break down the factors influencing year-on-year price changes. Prices increased significantly after Q2 2021, and, as the chart shows, that surge was overwhelmingly driven by the actual cost of natural gas (in green), rather than other charges related to running an energy utility. 

Consumer subsidies since Q2 2022 to mitigate the impact of the energy shock are also very visible in our chart. The Italian government cut taxes (in orange) and it also reduced costs passed to consumers for running and maintaining the gas system (in blue). As a result, the prices paid by the end user has come down significantly, as the second panel shows.