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This edition of Macro Trends examines how the global AI buildout is reshaping the macroeconomic landscape, tracing the investment cycle from data centre construction and semiconductor trade to equity markets and corporate capital expenditure. The analysis explores how physical infrastructure investment is driving demand across global supply chains, influencing trade flows, and supporting one of the largest technology investment cycles in recent history. It also examines how these developments are being reflected in semiconductor valuations, technology sector risk premiums, and hyperscaler spending—using macroeconomic, trade, and financial market data to understand where AI is creating economic impact and how investors are pricing the opportunity.
This edition of Macro Trends examines gold’s role as a safe-haven asset, tracing how its relationship with inflation, purchasing power, currencies, bonds, and other assets has evolved over time. The analysis explores gold’s repricing since the end of the gold standard, its performance against traditional safe havens and Bitcoin, and the potential impact of adding gold to a traditional 60/40 portfolio—using historical data to test where its diversification and store-of-value characteristics have held up across different market regimes.
This edition of Macro Trends explores the economic legacy of Brexit a decade after the UK's referendum, examining how the country's departure from the European Union has reshaped inflation, industrial production, migration, financial markets, and long-term growth prospects. The analysis compares the UK's post-Brexit performance with G7 and European peers, highlighting both the economic headwinds associated with higher trade frictions and labor market changes, alongside signs of resilience in medium-term growth forecasts and the evolving outlook for the British economy.
This edition of Macro Trends explores how China’s export economy is shifting up the value chain, driven by years of industrial policy and investment in advanced manufacturing. The analysis examines the rise of semiconductors, electric vehicles, and high-tech exports, alongside the growing role of ASEAN in reshaping regional supply chains and trade flows.
This edition of Macro Trends examines how a new El Niño cycle could reshape the global macro landscape through its effects on agriculture, commodity markets, trade flows, inflation, and fiscal stability. The chart pack explores the climate signals pointing to renewed Pacific warming, the economies most exposed to weather-related disruption, and the transmission channels through which El Niño affects growth and prices. From agricultural dependence and food inflation risk to commodity market performance and export vulnerability, the edition highlights why climate variability remains an increasingly important macroeconomic force for investors and policymakers alike.
This edition of Macro Trends explores how the global dollar system is being tested - from shifting reserve allocation and FX positioning to policy credibility, carry dynamics and real-rate divergence across major economies. This edition examines whether de-dollarization is becoming a structural macro force or remains a gradual evolution, tracking the pressures reshaping USD demand, reserve currency dynamics and cross-border capital flows. Through FX carry, reserve composition, Taylor Rule gaps and speculative positioning, the chart pack helps investors assess what a slower-moving transition could mean for currencies, rates and the broader global macro landscape.
