Days, Months & Decades of S&P 500 - Everything That Moves the Global Economy and Your Portfolio
To understand how the market really moves, there’s one series that tells the story better than any other: the S&P 500. This single equity index brings together the largest and most influential US companies, serving as a bellwether not just for the US market, but for the entire economy at large.
In this edition of Macro Moves, we set out to explore the S&P 500 like never before. Not through a simple collection of line charts, but a full suite of creative and unconventional visualizations - tools that are as practical as they are visually striking.
Built entirely around the S&P 500, this publication is a deep dive into the index itself: its movements, quirks, lessons, and how much insights a single series can provide when viewed creatively.
What does the chart show and how to use it in practice?
What is the best day of the year for the S&P 500? Or, to put it in more technical terms: is there a specific day in the calendar that has historically delivered the strongest one-year forward returns? This dashboard attempts to answer that question by sorting the 20 best days of the calendar year - those that have historically been followed by the highest one-year returns after that calendar date - and doing the same for the 20 weakest days.
What is the chart telling us about the current market?
If history is any guide, July 5th - just after Independence Day - has historically been followed by some of the strongest one-year forward returns. Close behind are May 31st and November 22nd, which have also tended to precede relatively strong market performance.
On the other side of the ranking, January 2nd - the very first trading day of the year - along with December 26th and November 24th, have historically been followed by weaker one-year forward returns.
What does the chart show and how to use it in practice?
This chart takes a different approach to looking at annual S&P 500 performance. Instead of focusing purely on yearly returns, it counts how many positive and negative trading days occurred each year. Each year is then placed along a diagonal line the higher it appears, the more “positive” the year, while lower positions indicate weaker years. This non-conventional perspective allows us to see a year through its daily returns, giving a more intuitive sense of how the market behaved day-to-day, rather than just through aggregate returns.
What is the chart telling us about the current market?
Viewed through this lens, some historical years stand out in surprising ways. Over the past 50 years, 1995 and 2019 emerge as the best years, with a large majority of days posting gains. 2025 also ranks quite high, despite a volatile market environment. On the other side, the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008 places that year near the 50-50 point, reflecting its mix of large swings and uncertainty. Finally, the two worst years appear to be 2002 and 2022, where negative days dominated the calendar.
What does the chart show and how to use it in practice?
This chart simulates a simple long-term investment in the S&P 500 over a 10-year period and shows how returns would change if the best-performing 10/20/30/40/50 days were missed. In other words, it offers a simple yet powerful way to illustrate how much long-term performance depends on a handful of key market days.
What is the chart telling us about the current market?
The concept of looking at “missed days” isn’t new at all. It is often used by market professionals to illustrate the importance of perfect timing. This is especially true for the S&P 500, which has repeatedly reached new all-time highs in recent years.
Even though 2026 so far hasn’t been record-breaking, the data makes one point very clear: missing just the 10 best days can cut total returns by roughly half, while missing the top 50 days can reduce returns by nearly a factor of five.
What does the chart show and how to use it in practice?
Which weekday historically delivers the strongest stock market returns? This column chart breaks down the five-day week (separating Mondays, Tuesdays, and so on) and calculates average historical S&P 500 returns for each day along with their minimum and maximum ranges. It also shows how often each weekday delivered positive returns, giving a clear sense of the “success rate” for each day.
What is the chart telling us about the current market?
Wednesday consistently comes out on top, delivering the highest average returns across decades of data. While the reasons remain unclear, by midweek many of the rough starts from Monday and Tuesday are already behind, and the market often finds its footing.
Monday, on the other hand, is a different story. Not only is it the least favorite day of the week for most workers, but historically it has also been the weakest for investors - the only weekday to show negative average returns. Tuesday, Thursday and Friday fall somewhere in between, with generally positive returns but less consistency than Wednesday.
What does the chart show and how to use it in practice?
This dashboard visualizes the maximum drawdown the S&P 500 has reached each month, using a calendar-style layout with coloring to highlight the depth of declines. It helps to spot both market corrections and crashes and shows how the market has recovered over time.
What is the chart telling us about the current market?
Despite a relatively weak start to 2026, the S&P 500 remains close to its all-time high. Last April, the market fell roughly 19%, yet it later recovered, highlighting how the index has rebounded after a significant drawdown.
What does the chart show and how to use it in practice?
This chart illustrates how 1/3/5/10-year forward total returns of the S&P 500 (including dividends paid) have historically varied depending on market conditions, from new all-time highs to mild drawdowns and severe crashes.
What is the chart telling us about the current market?
Historical results show clear differences across market regimes. Looking at history, forward returns vary depending on market conditions. Mild drawdowns near peaks have typically produced only modest gains, while market corrections of 20-40% have often been followed by weaker-than-average returns. Severe crashes - those exceeding 40% - are rare but have historically preceded the strongest forward returns. Finally, when the S&P 500 hits new highs, it has typically resulted in steady, moderate gains.
What does the chart show and how to use it in practice?
This chart serves two purposes: it shows the average cumulative returns of the S&P 500 based on holding periods, and it highlights how long it has historically taken for returns to turn consistently positive.
In our analysis, we went all the way back to 1928, so naturally, the returns may appear slightly lower than what recent decades would suggest. For an alternative view, the chart can be limited to the past few decades using total returns of the S&P 500 (spxtr), which include dividends reinvested. This provides a historical perspective on performance over varying holding periods.
What is the chart telling us about the current market?
Looking at the data, a three-year holding period has historically produced positive returns in 78% of cases. By the sixth year, this probability rises to 85%, and after 15 years, historical data indicates a roughly 96% likelihood of positive returns, with cumulative gains often exceeding 200%.
What does the chart show and how to use it in practice?
This spider web (or radar-like) chart maps monthly performance against percentiles, giving us a clear visual sense of where each month stands in historical context. Unlike a simple column chart, it builds a consistent line for the entire year, making it easy to see patterns and outliers at a glance.
What is the chart telling us about the current market?
As we recall from the past year, March 2025 marked the start of the tariffs discussion, which naturally made it one of the worst months in nearly 100 years. Then, Liberation Day on April 9th brought one of the deepest one-day dips, though a late-month rebound helped improve the overall picture. Finally, a full-scale recovery in May and June pushed the S&P 500 to deliver exceptionally strong gains, making these months some of the best in recent market history.
What does the chart show and how to use it in practice?
This ranking allows to compare the historical performance of a single month over the past two decades. The setup is flexible: the constant “3” in the series list represents the month of March, but it can be changed it to any number from 1 to 12 to generate the same ranking for any month from January to December.
What is the chart telling us about the current market?
Historically, March has shown unusual market behavior. In 2020, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led the S&P 500 to decline -12.5%, while in 2025, discussions around tariffs caused a -5.75% drop. In March 2026, the index recorded a modest -0.7%, which is lower than average but remains well above the most severe historical declines for this month.
What does the chart show and how to use it in practice?
This classic scatter plot compares annual returns of the S&P 500 with the average realized volatility for each year. As such, it offers a concise way to track both the historical performance of the US equity market and the conditions under which those returns occurred.
What is the chart telling us about the current market?
In 2026, the S&P 500 has experienced elevated volatility, drifting toward 19-20%. Despite this level of market variability, year-to-date returns remain near 0%, leaving the index largely flat.
This combination of high volatility with minimal net returns places 2026 outside the cluster of more typical years, resembling periods such as 2011 or 1987, when elevated volatility coincided with significant market fluctuations.
