Remembering bearish Septembers in the stock market
August was disappointing for US equities, with the S&P 500 posting a decline of almost 2 percent. Investors hoping for a rebound are facing the benchmark’s historically worst month.
As our chart shows, in 55 percent of the calendar years since 1928, the S&P 500 fell in September. (Macrobond users can click through here to a second chart showing another bearish stat: the average return for September is less than 1 percent, by far the worst monthly performance by this metric as well.*)
Should investors survive October (a month famed for some historic market crashes) and November, they can look forward to December: the historically most bullish month, when positive returns occurred almost 70 percent of the time.
* Macrobond users: this second chart will be in the same document. Open the file with the Macrobond app link, and look for "add chart: historical returns."