A potential green light for stalled economies
China was in the headlines in 2023 for an underwhelming rebound, and Britain’s travails post-Brexit are well-known. But according to the OECD, these two nations have improving economic momentum – relative to their own past five-year experience, that is.
This chart tracks the OECD’s Economic Composite Leading Indicator for 17 major economies. In the OECD’s words: it’s “designed to provide early signals of turning points in business cycles,” using future-sensitive economic data points that measure early-stage production and respond rapidly to changing circumstances.
Readings are divided into red, yellow and green based on their percentile over five years. We also added smaller dots to show the six-month trajectory. (We published a similar “traffic light” visualisation for the US in February.)
Worryingly for the world economy, a plurality of nations are in the red zone, suggesting their best recent days are behind them. Deterioration over six months is noted for Germany, Turkey and South Africa. But the indicator shows improvement for the US and Japan.