The Chinese reopening effect
China is reopening, and the International Monetary Fund is adjusting its global growth estimates accordingly.
The chart plots nations based on the IMF’s estimates for real GDP growth this year and the degree of its most recent estimate revision. Put another way. one axis shows whether a country is in recession or expansion; the other shows whether things have improved or deteriorated since the last IMF assessment in October.
China is making the biggest move on the chart, dragging the world economy with it, as it reverses the zero-Covid policy; the IMF’s estimate for world GDP growth was revised upwards to 2.9 percent for 2023.
The UK also stands out; as trade frictions from Brexit and higher interest rates bite, it’s now projected to be the only G7 economy in recession.
It’s also notable that emerging markets as a whole are expected to outpace their developed peers, whose growth rate the IMF projects at an anemic 1.2 percent.