The world’s “early hiker” central banks mostly dodged a recession
When inflation alarm bells started sounding in 2021, some countries – mostly emerging markets – acted more quickly than others. Some hiked rates a year earlier than their developed-market peers did.
This heatmap examines nine of these countries, gauging how they have fared since becoming “early hikers” and whether they have avoided recession.
We chose several criteria: 1) whether the average quarter-on-quarter annualised GDP growth for the past two quarters is below zero; 2) whether unemployment grew by more than 0.15 percentage points over three months; 3) whether the three-month moving average of manufacturing PMI is below 45; and 4) whether average quarter-on-quarter annualised industrial-production growth is below zero for the past two quarters. Wherever these criteria are met, the values have a red background shading.
Most of these economies appear to have been robust enough to absorb the tightening by inflation-hawk central bankers. Only Hungary faces a likely recession.