US seasonally adjusted vs non-seasonally adjusted GDP
Is the US in recession or not? This week we dig deeper into the debate by looking at a few charts on the state of the economy.
A common definition of a technical recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. This chart debunks that interpretation. First, GDP series are often subject to major revisions. For example, since GDI growth has been positive in Q1, there is a good chance the GDP series will be revised upwards later this year.
Second, the non-seasonally adjusted GDP figure shows relatively strong growth in Q2. It is thus far from certain whether the US economy has actually experienced two consecutive quarters of decline.