Charts of the Week

This week’s charts begin with bearish trends: the “Powell spread” the Fed chairman uses as a recession indicator is the most inverted in decades, while housing markets are deflating at different rates around the world. We take a deep dive into suffering Sweden: inflation is worse than the European average, unions’ wage gains will be wiped out by price increases, and home values are sinking simultaneously across the country. In the US, money market funds appear to be the beneficiaries as bank deposits shrink, while in China, optimism that a boom would follow the great reopening has been tempered by sluggish global demand for exports. And turning to geopolitics, we track NATO’s leaders and laggards in defense spending.

This week’s charts address the repercussions of banking crises on both sides of the Atlantic: the Fed expanded its balance sheet on an emergency basis, while AT1 yields jumped higher after the Credit Suisse rescue wiped out CoCo bondholders. We also created a dashboard to measure national banking risks, and show how equity and bond-market volatility are unusually disconnected. We examine several emerging markets: South Africa’s power crisis, Vietnam’s wider currency-trading range, and Latin America’s economic stagnation. And finally, we examine real estate performance during tightening cycles and invite you to watch our webinar with experts on the sector.

This week’s charts revisit the evolution of Fed funds futures as the US central bank heads into a potentially pivotal meeting; with yield curves inverted, investors are anticipating both a recession and a potential halt to interest-rate increases. A Fed “pivot” is seen as possible in the wake of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, which we examine through the prism of small lenders’ loan-to-deposit ratios and potential asset-liability mismatches. We finish with three charts on the UK: growth is projected to stay below trend, workers are striking, and the government recorded a surprise revenue windfall.

Has Europe stockpiled enough natural gas to counter Putin's plans to cripple its industry? Did Powell's testimony alter the market's outlook on future rate hikes? Will China's prudent growth target dampen the region's sentiment? What is the potential extent of the housing market crash predicted by two separate models in Sweden? With deaths exceeding births at an alarming rate, is Japan's demographic time bomb ticking closer to detonation? Lastly, how will the low water levels in the Rhine River impact the German economy and European trade?

This week’s charts visualise different effects of inflation: how high-inflation years are correlated with bad years for stocks and bonds, and how real wage growth is being wiped out in the US. We chart a survey of manufacturers that shows how shortages of labour and raw materials are constraining production. We created a model to measure Covid restrictions and reopening in China, and show how a PMI survey is a leading indicator of corporate profitability. We track deflating German house prices and the healthy labour market in Europe. Finally, as International Women’s Day approaches, we examine which nations combine innovation with female entrepreneurship.

This week’s charts provide historic comparisons of inflation and perceived geopolitical risks in different countries. Amid speculation Japan will change its monetary policy, we chart how its investors have been selling foreign bonds. We examine measures of over- and undervalued currencies, while showing how a weaker dollar is distorting perceptions of central banks’ balance sheets. China’s crowded roads are a bullish signal, though investors in Chinese stocks still want to see more earnings upgrades. And while most of the world’s economies keep growing, there are recessionary signals to watch.

This week’s charts offer insights into China’s great reopening from two angles: the aftermath of stock busts and tourism to Japan. Speaking of Japan, its yield control policy means liquidity is being added to the market on a global basis. For India, we offer a model to predict economic growth. We track which nations are showing positive PMIs and promoting the most women to the boardroom. Finally, we measure how globalisation has stalled, why the high-yield credit market might stay interesting, and note that fewer Americans than usual missed work due to bad weather.

This week’s charts ponder trends in multiple equity markets: the UK FTSE 100 is setting records again, China is luring overseas investors back into stocks, and there’s now a body of historic evidence that suggests US debt-ceiling showdowns impact certain shares. On the US economic front, employment strength persists, with more unfilled positions than job seekers, while other data are flashing recessionary signals. In Europe, the inflation heatmap is cooling, but structural dependence on Russian gas can’t be ignored. We also visualise Saudi Arabia’s trade balance and show how interest-rate policies have diverged substantially amongst emerging markets.

This week’s charts examine how China’s reopening is providing the global economy with a boost, from the IMF’s GDP estimates to prices for industrial metals. We examine Russia’s demographic challenge and a Brazilian trade surplus that is set to shrink. US politicians are in another showdown over the nation’s debt ceiling, while European economic indicators look healthier, even as projections of the near future show markets expect higher interest rates for longer from the ECB. And as the Nasdaq soars again, we show how US trend growth has deteriorated since the days of the first dot-com bubble.

This week’s charts kick off with an examination of national carbon emissions over time. In markets, things are rotating; the dollar has weakened, the tech selloff has paused and defensive stocks are performing less strongly than one might expect, given that analysts are slashing earnings estimates for US companies. We also offer different ways of looking at the timing and level of peak interest rates, and visualise surging UK public borrowing, disappointing Christmas retail sales and the persistent discount for Russian crude.

This week’s charts examine a historic demographic shift: China is set to be surpassed by India as the world’s most populous nation. We also examine government investment that’s supporting China’s economy, market rumblings surrounding Japan’s monetary policy and soaring grocery prices in Britain. In the US, we chart resilient stock valuations on an international basis, the cooling housing market, layoffs in the tech sector, and contraction in manufacturing. Finally, we construct models to measure Germany’s economy and forecast US inflation.

This week’s charts examine the stock slump from multiple angles: while the number of down days in 2022 approached Great Depression levels, there have been far worse bear markets in recent history. And while the World Bank is cutting growth estimates, the S&P 500 arguably isn’t pricing in the recession some observers expect. On the inflation side, Europe is avoiding an energy crisis, and our pie chart suggests some relief is ahead; meanwhile, US CEOs are having less of a struggle to find talent. Finally, we present a template for Macrobond users to create their own Nowcast to “predict the present” for the economy.

For our first chart pack of 2023, we will review more of our community’s greatest hits of 2022. These visualisations had the most clicks through to the Macrobond application – enabling both deeper examination and potential customisation of the chart in question. Seven charts show how Macrobond users confronted a macroeconomic universe that had changed profoundly from 2021. After Russia invaded Ukraine, markets focused on rampant inflation, prospects for tighter central bank policies in response, and how Europe would cope with reduced natural gas flows for winter. We have updated the charts to demonstrate how trends evolved, but these issues are all still pertinent for the New Year.

For our final chart pack of 2022, we look back at the year’s greatest hits with Macrobond customers. These visualisations had the most clicks through to the Macrobond application – enabling both deeper examination and potential customisation of the chart in question. Our first eight charts show how Macrobond users were focused on the related crises of surging inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Oil prices soared in early March, and knock-on effects continued in the gas and electricity markets. As inflation stayed hot, central banks turned hawkish. We have updated the charts to show how trends evolved, but all of these issues are still pertinent as we approach 2023. Look out for more popular 2022 charts when we release Part II in January.

As 2022 heads to a close, this week’s charts examine the tug of war between growth and value stocks over the past decade, as well as different indicators that predict falling US inflation. China is relaxing the Covid zero policy as cases rise, resulting in an uncertain outlook for its German trading partner. Americans are switching jobs because it pays to do so, while UK housing prices are proving to be a leading indicator for unemployment. And it’s not just you – it really is a colder winter than usual in Europe.

This week’s charts take a broad look at indicators of stress and recession. While US financial conditions are easing, and a soft landing from the Fed could be good for stocks, inverted yield curves and falling productivity are signs of an economic downturn. This year saw France generate less nuclear power than usual, while Russia shipped more crude to India and China. Finally, Asian nations’ reserves are shrinking as they defend their currencies against King Dollar.

As year-end approaches, this week’s charts examine years of winners and losers in different asset classes. We track easing inflation in Europe, equity performance around historic inflation peaks, and examine an alternative US CPI that would reflect soft rents. The Taylor Rule shines a light on loose monetary policy for Germany, while another recession indicator is beginning to flash Stateside.

This week’s charts address US tech job cuts and the falling Nasdaq’s close relationship with indicators tied to the tech sector. Still, Silicon Valley has made California so rich over time that it’s approaching German GDP levels. We examine stocks in different inflation regimes and the decades-long US “twin deficit.” On the inflation front, advanced economies are racking up emerging market-like price increases, but there is relief ahead for German producers. Finally, US homebuilders are set for a downturn, while the Chinese aren’t going out to watch movies.

This week’s charts cover the crypto crash and FTX meltdown, the dearth of positive days for stocks this year, and a sentiment measure that suggests an end to the bear market may be near. In the wake of the US interims, we examine the election cycle’s relationship with equities, unemployment and inflation. In China, we track the renewed spike in Covid-19 cases and analyse the disconnect between different measures of inflation.