Charts of the Week

This week’s charts kick off with an examination of national carbon emissions over time. In markets, things are rotating; the dollar has weakened, the tech selloff has paused and defensive stocks are performing less strongly than one might expect, given that analysts are slashing earnings estimates for US companies. We also offer different ways of looking at the timing and level of peak interest rates, and visualise surging UK public borrowing, disappointing Christmas retail sales and the persistent discount for Russian crude.

This week’s charts examine a historic demographic shift: China is set to be surpassed by India as the world’s most populous nation. We also examine government investment that’s supporting China’s economy, market rumblings surrounding Japan’s monetary policy and soaring grocery prices in Britain. In the US, we chart resilient stock valuations on an international basis, the cooling housing market, layoffs in the tech sector, and contraction in manufacturing. Finally, we construct models to measure Germany’s economy and forecast US inflation.

This week’s charts examine the stock slump from multiple angles: while the number of down days in 2022 approached Great Depression levels, there have been far worse bear markets in recent history. And while the World Bank is cutting growth estimates, the S&P 500 arguably isn’t pricing in the recession some observers expect. On the inflation side, Europe is avoiding an energy crisis, and our pie chart suggests some relief is ahead; meanwhile, US CEOs are having less of a struggle to find talent. Finally, we present a template for Macrobond users to create their own Nowcast to “predict the present” for the economy.

For our first chart pack of 2023, we will review more of our community’s greatest hits of 2022. These visualisations had the most clicks through to the Macrobond application – enabling both deeper examination and potential customisation of the chart in question. Seven charts show how Macrobond users confronted a macroeconomic universe that had changed profoundly from 2021. After Russia invaded Ukraine, markets focused on rampant inflation, prospects for tighter central bank policies in response, and how Europe would cope with reduced natural gas flows for winter. We have updated the charts to demonstrate how trends evolved, but these issues are all still pertinent for the New Year.

For our final chart pack of 2022, we look back at the year’s greatest hits with Macrobond customers. These visualisations had the most clicks through to the Macrobond application – enabling both deeper examination and potential customisation of the chart in question. Our first eight charts show how Macrobond users were focused on the related crises of surging inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Oil prices soared in early March, and knock-on effects continued in the gas and electricity markets. As inflation stayed hot, central banks turned hawkish. We have updated the charts to show how trends evolved, but all of these issues are still pertinent as we approach 2023. Look out for more popular 2022 charts when we release Part II in January.

As 2022 heads to a close, this week’s charts examine the tug of war between growth and value stocks over the past decade, as well as different indicators that predict falling US inflation. China is relaxing the Covid zero policy as cases rise, resulting in an uncertain outlook for its German trading partner. Americans are switching jobs because it pays to do so, while UK housing prices are proving to be a leading indicator for unemployment. And it’s not just you – it really is a colder winter than usual in Europe.

This week’s charts take a broad look at indicators of stress and recession. While US financial conditions are easing, and a soft landing from the Fed could be good for stocks, inverted yield curves and falling productivity are signs of an economic downturn. This year saw France generate less nuclear power than usual, while Russia shipped more crude to India and China. Finally, Asian nations’ reserves are shrinking as they defend their currencies against King Dollar.

As year-end approaches, this week’s charts examine years of winners and losers in different asset classes. We track easing inflation in Europe, equity performance around historic inflation peaks, and examine an alternative US CPI that would reflect soft rents. The Taylor Rule shines a light on loose monetary policy for Germany, while another recession indicator is beginning to flash Stateside.

This week’s charts address US tech job cuts and the falling Nasdaq’s close relationship with indicators tied to the tech sector. Still, Silicon Valley has made California so rich over time that it’s approaching German GDP levels. We examine stocks in different inflation regimes and the decades-long US “twin deficit.” On the inflation front, advanced economies are racking up emerging market-like price increases, but there is relief ahead for German producers. Finally, US homebuilders are set for a downturn, while the Chinese aren’t going out to watch movies.

This week’s charts cover the crypto crash and FTX meltdown, the dearth of positive days for stocks this year, and a sentiment measure that suggests an end to the bear market may be near. In the wake of the US interims, we examine the election cycle’s relationship with equities, unemployment and inflation. In China, we track the renewed spike in Covid-19 cases and analyse the disconnect between different measures of inflation.

This week’s charts look at Germany from different perspectives, including the trade relationship with China and rapidly declining consumer confidence. We also examine Japan, which is experiencing a domestic travel boom and slowing industrial production. Meanwhile, the prices of many commodities are stabilising; US crude oil production is rising while its petroleum reserves hit multi-decade lows. Finally, investors are hoarding more cash as stocks struggle.

As the world gathers to discuss climate policy at COP27 in Egypt, this week’s charts look at historic emissions trends from several angles. We show how emissions per capita have evolved for major economies that have made progress in the shift to clean energy. We also examine the potential for a Powell pivot amid an environment of slumping stocks and shipping rates but persistently low unemployment.

This week’s charts cover the US from multiple angles: the pandemic-driven boom and bust in household wealth; the hot labour market and a potential mismatch between jobs and job seekers; the shrinking volume of imports through the nation’s biggest port; the West Coast house-price slump; and falling rents. We also address the continued slump by Hong Kong stocks, and turn to Europe to investigate stubborn inflation and crashing natural-gas prices.

This week’s charts cover Europe’s business cycle and the surprisingly low financial stress level in the US, while examining China from several angles: amid lockdowns and a surprise delay to GDP figures, a measure of business loans is surprisingly strong. We also examine UK bankruptcies, the devastating collapse in bond prices, Vladimir Putin’s popularity with Russians, and a small-business indicator that suggests US inflation will ease.

This week’s charts examine the teetering US housing market from multiple angles -- including historic mortgage rate trends and affordability -- and track the GOP’s chances of regaining control of the House given the unsettled economy. We also cover European inflation, which is becoming baked into consumers’ medium-term expectations even as some nations suffer more than others. In Japan, our charts track pressure on household incomes and the underpriced yen, while Norway’s oil bounty and sovereign wealth fund are also in focus.

This week’s charts cover market stress related to Credit Suisse, the slowdown in global semiconductors, the prospect of a year-end US stock rally and the break from a historic correlation between falling equity markets and higher bond returns. We also examine demographic headwinds in Asian countries including China, whose GDP gap with the US is widening again. Finally, an anomalous gap between measures of the US economy has evaporated, while social research shows how a healthier, cleaner and more equal society is linked to national wealth.

This week’s charts cover the importance of Norwegian gas and LNG in a world with shrinking Russian shipments; Britain’s currency and bond market shock after the Truss tax cut surprise; devalued equities and balance-of-payments alerts flashing red in emerging markets; Germany’s spiraling business cycle; and predicting recessions through a more sophisticated reading of consumer sentiment.

This week’s charts cover elevated youth unemployment, the dollar’s dominance, the end of China’s decades-long trade deficit with South Korea, and Japan’s widening trade deficit. They also take a deep dive into Brazil: Lula is set to retake power from Jair Bolsonaro, even as the nation has avoided the inflation and energy crises seen elsewhere in the world.

This week’s charts cover the relationship between prosperity and corruption; Germany’s warming climate and natural gas use; European inflation expectations and consumer psychology; the relationship between a rising dollar and lower US earnings; the surprising disconnect between US inventories and consumer confidence; and a tight post-pandemic US labour market where some firms are hungrier for workers than others.