Charts of the Week

The data making headlines

Latest chart packs
Inflation worries linger – from the UK to Indonesia

Inflation worries linger – from the UK to Indonesia

August 12, 2022

This week’s charts cover the Bank of England’s gloomy macroeconomic forecasts, Indonesia’s consumer price index, emerging markets’ growing debt burden, the drop in US productivity, the ECB’s bond purchases and TARGET2 balances, hedge funds outperforming the S&P 500, China’s surging trade surplus, and tourism returning to Thailand.

More evidence the US is not (yet) in recession

More evidence the US is not (yet) in recession

August 5, 2022

This week’s charts cover US seasonally adjusted vs non-seasonally adjusted GDP, US NBER recession dating indicators, Conference board recession indicators, US labour market, VIX vs yield spread business cycle, global house price indicators, US house price vs long-run trend, US and Sweden house prices, Hong Kong Phillips curve and semi-conductor inventories.

Falling fast: EU gas levels, US CEO confidence and China consumer sentiment

Falling fast: EU gas levels, US CEO confidence and China consumer sentiment

July 29, 2022

This week’s charts cover Germany business cycle, EU natural gas inventory, global central bank tightening, US CEO confidence, a new model for u*, US employment growth outliers, China consumer confidence, China regional GDP, China construction starts and Rhine water levels.

US recession probability, euro area trade balance, and global supplier delivery times

US recession probability, euro area trade balance, and global supplier delivery times

July 15, 2022

This week’s charts cover US labour force, US recession probability, US recession indicator, Bank of Canada rate hike, supplier delivery times, household consumption as share of GDP, Euro area trade balance with Russia, Euro area trade balance with Russia, Norway and China, Euro area trade balance and euro-dollar exchange rate and Australia retail trade.

 Inflation, inflation, inflation – and the 2001 recession that maybe wasn’t

Inflation, inflation, inflation – and the 2001 recession that maybe wasn’t

July 8, 2022

This week’s charts cover global inflation, US inflation expectations, US inflation expectations based on breakeven rates, US CPI vs PCE, widening to a record US GDP revisions, debunking the classic definition of recession, US GDP Q2 nowcast, US financial stress, German inflation forecast, German inflation contributors and Sweden inflation.

US yields, commodity disinflation and an exchange rate model for the Japanese yen

US yields, commodity disinflation and an exchange rate model for the Japanese yen

July 1, 2022

This week’s charts cover nominal US 10-year yield, real US 10-year yield, business confidence and earnings revisions, commodity price disinflation, commodities drawdowns, cotton prices, Chinese exports vs US inventories, yen exchange rate fair value model, Germany temperatures, impact of Roe v Wade ruling on US Congress and webinar: Indicio masterclass.

Eurozone inflation, US monetary policy and recession forecasts

Eurozone inflation, US monetary policy and recession forecasts

June 24, 2022

This week’s charts cover euro area inflation, US house prices vs population change, US monetary policy, Philadelphia Fed US coincident index, US GDP forecast (using New York Fed DSGE model), US GDP forecast (using Indicio), US equities vs interest rates, Australia labour market and Bank of Japan bond purchases

Global asset markets in turmoil; Hong Kong shows signs of recovery

Global asset markets in turmoil; Hong Kong shows signs of recovery

June 17, 2022

This week’s chart pack covers US equity fundamentals, Fed fund futures, US two-year yields, US yield curve inversion, equity/bond correlation, OECD growth forecast revisions, UK GDP, Japanese yen and yield curve control, yen-dollar exchange rate and Hong Kong PMI.

Central bank tightening, UK income squeeze and forecasting South Korean inflation with Indicio

Central bank tightening, UK income squeeze and forecasting South Korean inflation with Indicio

June 10, 2022

This week’s charts cover Central bank tightening, Central bank tightening vs US economic activity, US GDP vs GDI, UK inflation vs wage growth, South Korea exports, South Korea inflation, South Korea inflation forecast using Indicio, Global equity and bond returns and US bonds vs equities.

China unemployment, EU consumer confidence, MENA outlook and why it’s a good time to visit Japan

China unemployment, EU consumer confidence, MENA outlook and why it’s a good time to visit Japan

June 3, 2022

This week's chart pack covers the following data: China unemployment, EU consumer confidence and inflation, EU consumer vs business confidence, MENA food inflation, MENA breakeven oil price, global growth outlook and Japan real effective exchange rate.

US macroeconomic anomalies and volatility; German producer prices; Sri Lanka cost-of-living crisis

US macroeconomic anomalies and volatility; German producer prices; Sri Lanka cost-of-living crisis

May 27, 2022

This week’s charts cover US unemployment vs natural rate, US unemployment gaps, US growth and inflation volatility, Fed tightening cycle and policy rates, Fed tightening cycle and unemployment, Germany producer prices, Sri Lanka inflation, Sri Lanka food prices and China-US 10-year yield spread.

Wheat prices, exports and consequences; China slowdown; global equities

Wheat prices, exports and consequences; China slowdown; global equities

May 20, 2022

This week’s charts highlight world’s biggest wheat exporters and importers, impact of India’s wheat export ban, link between rising food prices and political instability, China industrial production, China credit conditions, China GDP forecasting model, China box office revenues, Euro area inflation distribution and sensitivity of global equity benchmarks to US interest rates.

UK recession forecast, ageing populations, the perils of investing in crypto

UK recession forecast, ageing populations, the perils of investing in crypto

May 13, 2022

This week's chart pack covers the following data: UK inflation forecast revisions, UK unemployment forecast revisions, German GDP forecasting with vintage data, euro area inflation dispersion, US early retirement trend, Japan population and house prices, China’s ageing population, plunging Chinese imports, falling copper and aluminium prices, ARK Invest hedge fund performance.

Forecast revisions show rising risk of higher inflation and lower growth

Forecast revisions show rising risk of higher inflation and lower growth

May 6, 2022

This week’s charts cover: global growth forecast revisions, global inflation forecast revisions, Russia inflation forecast revisions, US construction starts, US mortgage rates, China manufacturing and services, US equities and bond market returns, and US mid-term elections: impact of Roe vs Wade.

Equity strategies, forecast revisions and Chinese copper

Equity strategies, forecast revisions and Chinese copper

April 29, 2022

This week’s charts cover ‘Sell in May and go away’ strategy delivers mixed results, US equity returns worst since Great Recession, GDP growth forecasts revised down, Forecasts from new FocusEconomics dataset, US inflation forecasts revised up, US wheat prices surge to record, Chinese copper supply dwindles, China copper supply at decade-low and China mobility lowest in APAC.

Emerging market vulnerabilities, historical inflation rates and other long-term macro data

Emerging market vulnerabilities, historical inflation rates and other long-term macro data

April 22, 2022

This week’s chart pack covers the following data: EM equity performance, EM equities and commodities prices, EM current account deficits and gross external debt, historical inflation trends, global per capita GDP, UK economic output and UK money velocity.

Commodities, China lockdown and egg prices

Commodities, China lockdown and egg prices

April 14, 2022

This week’s chart pack covers the following data: Commodity price performance, commodity markets and US monetary policy, US mortgage rates and monetary policy, global central banks and US economic activity, Shanghai in lockdown, China supply chain pressures and egg prices in France.

Norway and Switzerland’s ‘exorbitant privilege’

Norway and Switzerland’s ‘exorbitant privilege’

April 8, 2022

This week’s chart pack covers the following data: Norwegian sovereign wealth fund and currency, Switzerland currency and central bank intervention, predictions for the French election, US credit card spending, equity performance following yield curve inversion, China mobility and Russia inflation.

More central bank action but BOJ swims against the stream

More central bank action but BOJ swims against the stream

April 1, 2022

This chart pack covers the following data: Central bank policy rates, yield curve inversion as predictor of recession, Japan inflation, Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary easing, Yen USD exchange rate, oil decomposition, spread between Urals and Brent, Japan’s Phillips curve actually looks like Japan!

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