Charts of the Week

The data making headlines

Latest chart packs

The Powell spread, money market inflows and trouble in Sweden
Federal Reserve
Inflation
Money Markets
Real estate
Sweden

The Powell spread, money market inflows and trouble in Sweden

March 31, 2023

This week’s charts begin with bearish trends: the “Powell spread” the Fed chairman uses as a recession indicator is the most inverted in decades, while housing markets are deflating at different rates around the world. We take a deep dive into suffering Sweden: inflation is worse than the European average, unions’ wage gains will be wiped out by price increases, and home values are sinking simultaneously across the country. In the US, money market funds appear to be the beneficiaries as bank deposits shrink, while in China, optimism that a boom would follow the great reopening has been tempered by sluggish global demand for exports. And turning to geopolitics, we track NATO’s leaders and laggards in defense spending.

The Fed balance sheet grows, CoCos turn risky, and the outlook for real estate
Banking
Federal Reserve
Real estate
South Africa
Vietnam

The Fed balance sheet grows, CoCos turn risky, and the outlook for real estate

March 24, 2023

This week’s charts address the repercussions of banking crises on both sides of the Atlantic: the Fed expanded its balance sheet on an emergency basis, while AT1 yields jumped higher after the Credit Suisse rescue wiped out CoCo bondholders. We also created a dashboard to measure national banking risks, and show how equity and bond-market volatility are unusually disconnected. We examine several emerging markets: South Africa’s power crisis, Vietnam’s wider currency-trading range, and Latin America’s economic stagnation. And finally, we examine real estate performance during tightening cycles and invite you to watch our webinar with experts on the sector.

Inverted curves, the SVB effect, and pessimistic Britain
Banks
Budget
Federal Reserve
Labour
UK

Inverted curves, the SVB effect, and pessimistic Britain

March 17, 2023

This week’s charts revisit the evolution of Fed funds futures as the US central bank heads into a potentially pivotal meeting; with yield curves inverted, investors are anticipating both a recession and a potential halt to interest-rate increases. A Fed “pivot” is seen as possible in the wake of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, which we examine through the prism of small lenders’ loan-to-deposit ratios and potential asset-liability mismatches. We finish with three charts on the UK: growth is projected to stay below trend, workers are striking, and the government recorded a surprise revenue windfall.

Weather, demand, and demographics affect markets in Europe, Asia, and beyond
China
Demographics
Energy
Real estate
Russia

Weather, demand, and demographics affect markets in Europe, Asia, and beyond

March 10, 2023

Has Europe stockpiled enough natural gas to counter Putin's plans to cripple its industry? Did Powell's testimony alter the market's outlook on future rate hikes? Will China's prudent growth target dampen the region's sentiment? What is the potential extent of the housing market crash predicted by two separate models in Sweden? With deaths exceeding births at an alarming rate, is Japan's demographic time bomb ticking closer to detonation? Lastly, how will the low water levels in the Rhine River impact the German economy and European trade?

European jobs, inflation and the markets, and entrepreneurial women
EU
Inflation
China
Germany
Unemployment

European jobs, inflation and the markets, and entrepreneurial women

March 3, 2023

This week’s charts visualise different effects of inflation: how high-inflation years are correlated with bad years for stocks and bonds, and how real wage growth is being wiped out in the US. We chart a survey of manufacturers that shows how shortages of labour and raw materials are constraining production. We created a model to measure Covid restrictions and reopening in China, and show how a PMI survey is a leading indicator of corporate profitability. We track deflating German house prices and the healthy labour market in Europe. Finally, as International Women’s Day approaches, we examine which nations combine innovation with female entrepreneurship.

German geopolitics, Japan’s bond investors, undervalued currencies
Germany
Geopolitics
Inflation
China
Japan

German geopolitics, Japan’s bond investors, undervalued currencies

February 24, 2023

This week’s charts provide historic comparisons of inflation and perceived geopolitical risks in different countries. Amid speculation Japan will change its monetary policy, we chart how its investors have been selling foreign bonds. We examine measures of over- and undervalued currencies, while showing how a weaker dollar is distorting perceptions of central banks’ balance sheets. China’s crowded roads are a bullish signal, though investors in Chinese stocks still want to see more earnings upgrades. And while most of the world’s economies keep growing, there are recessionary signals to watch.

Chinese stock rallies, Japan’s loose liquidity and Slowbalisation
China
Stock
Liquidity
Emerging Markets

Chinese stock rallies, Japan’s loose liquidity and Slowbalisation

February 17, 2023

This week’s charts offer insights into China’s great reopening from two angles: the aftermath of stock busts and tourism to Japan. Speaking of Japan, its yield control policy means liquidity is being added to the market on a global basis. For India, we offer a model to predict economic growth. We track which nations are showing positive PMIs and promoting the most women to the boardroom. Finally, we measure how globalisation has stalled, why the high-yield credit market might stay interesting, and note that fewer Americans than usual missed work due to bad weather.

FTSE rally, debt ceiling drama and deciphering job strength in the US
UK
Equities
US
Energy
China

FTSE rally, debt ceiling drama and deciphering job strength in the US

February 10, 2023

This week’s charts ponder trends in multiple equity markets: the UK FTSE 100 is setting records again, China is luring overseas investors back into stocks, and there’s now a body of historic evidence that suggests US debt-ceiling showdowns impact certain shares. On the US economic front, employment strength persists, with more unfilled positions than job seekers, while other data are flashing recessionary signals. In Europe, the inflation heatmap is cooling, but structural dependence on Russian gas can’t be ignored. We also visualise Saudi Arabia’s trade balance and show how interest-rate policies have diverged substantially amongst emerging markets.

China reopens, Nasdaq soars again and Russia’s demographic challenge
Russia
China
Demographics
Federal Reserve
ECB

China reopens, Nasdaq soars again and Russia’s demographic challenge

February 3, 2023

This week’s charts examine how China’s reopening is providing the global economy with a boost, from the IMF’s GDP estimates to prices for industrial metals. We examine Russia’s demographic challenge and a Brazilian trade surplus that is set to shrink. US politicians are in another showdown over the nation’s debt ceiling, while European economic indicators look healthier, even as projections of the near future show markets expect higher interest rates for longer from the ECB. And as the Nasdaq soars again, we show how US trend growth has deteriorated since the days of the first dot-com bubble.

CO2 trends, dollar weakness and anticipating the pivot
ESG
Emissions
Oil
Russia
Inflation

CO2 trends, dollar weakness and anticipating the pivot

January 27, 2023

This week’s charts kick off with an examination of national carbon emissions over time. In markets, things are rotating; the dollar has weakened, the tech selloff has paused and defensive stocks are performing less strongly than one might expect, given that analysts are slashing earnings estimates for US companies. We also offer different ways of looking at the timing and level of peak interest rates, and visualise surging UK public borrowing, disappointing Christmas retail sales and the persistent discount for Russian crude.

India overtakes China, Japanese yield control and US tech layoffs
China
Germany
Government Bonds
Housing
India

India overtakes China, Japanese yield control and US tech layoffs

January 20, 2023

This week’s charts examine a historic demographic shift: China is set to be surpassed by India as the world’s most populous nation. We also examine government investment that’s supporting China’s economy, market rumblings surrounding Japan’s monetary policy and soaring grocery prices in Britain. In the US, we chart resilient stock valuations on an international basis, the cooling housing market, layoffs in the tech sector, and contraction in manufacturing. Finally, we construct models to measure Germany’s economy and forecast US inflation.

Historic bear markets, Nowcasting, and a lucky warm winter in Europe
Equities
Inflation
Trade
Recession

Historic bear markets, Nowcasting, and a lucky warm winter in Europe

January 13, 2023

This week’s charts examine the stock slump from multiple angles: while the number of down days in 2022 approached Great Depression levels, there have been far worse bear markets in recent history. And while the World Bank is cutting growth estimates, the S&P 500 arguably isn’t pricing in the recession some observers expect. On the inflation side, Europe is avoiding an energy crisis, and our pie chart suggests some relief is ahead; meanwhile, US CEOs are having less of a struggle to find talent. Finally, we present a template for Macrobond users to create their own Nowcast to “predict the present” for the economy.

Charts of the Year: 2022’s most popular visualisations, Part II
Inflation
Energy
ECB

Charts of the Year: 2022’s most popular visualisations, Part II

January 6, 2023

For our first chart pack of 2023, we will review more of our community’s greatest hits of 2022. These visualisations had the most clicks through to the Macrobond application – enabling both deeper examination and potential customisation of the chart in question. Seven charts show how Macrobond users confronted a macroeconomic universe that had changed profoundly from 2021. After Russia invaded Ukraine, markets focused on rampant inflation, prospects for tighter central bank policies in response, and how Europe would cope with reduced natural gas flows for winter. We have updated the charts to demonstrate how trends evolved, but these issues are all still pertinent for the New Year.

Charts of the Year: 2022’s most popular visualisations, Part I
Federal Reserve
Recession
Inflation

Charts of the Year: 2022’s most popular visualisations, Part I

December 21, 2022

For our final chart pack of 2022, we look back at the year’s greatest hits with Macrobond customers. These visualisations had the most clicks through to the Macrobond application – enabling both deeper examination and potential customisation of the chart in question. Our first eight charts show how Macrobond users were focused on the related crises of surging inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Oil prices soared in early March, and knock-on effects continued in the gas and electricity markets. As inflation stayed hot, central banks turned hawkish. We have updated the charts to show how trends evolved, but all of these issues are still pertinent as we approach 2023. Look out for more popular 2022 charts when we release Part II in January.

Growth versus value, Europe’s cold snap and inflation expectations
Inflation
US
China
Covid-19
Trade

Growth versus value, Europe’s cold snap and inflation expectations

December 16, 2022

As 2022 heads to a close, this week’s charts examine the tug of war between growth and value stocks over the past decade, as well as different indicators that predict falling US inflation. China is relaxing the Covid zero policy as cases rise, resulting in an uncertain outlook for its German trading partner. Americans are switching jobs because it pays to do so, while UK housing prices are proving to be a leading indicator for unemployment. And it’s not just you – it really is a colder winter than usual in Europe.

Financial tensions ease, recession signals flash, Asian reserves melt
Inflation
Equities
US
Government Bonds
Oil

Financial tensions ease, recession signals flash, Asian reserves melt

December 9, 2022

This week’s charts take a broad look at indicators of stress and recession. While US financial conditions are easing, and a soft landing from the Fed could be good for stocks, inverted yield curves and falling productivity are signs of an economic downturn. This year saw France generate less nuclear power than usual, while Russia shipped more crude to India and China. Finally, Asian nations’ reserves are shrinking as they defend their currencies against King Dollar.

An asset-class scorecard and applying the Taylor Rule to the ECB
Crypto
Real estate
Germany
Inflation

An asset-class scorecard and applying the Taylor Rule to the ECB

December 2, 2022

As year-end approaches, this week’s charts examine years of winners and losers in different asset classes. We track easing inflation in Europe, equity performance around historic inflation peaks, and examine an alternative US CPI that would reflect soft rents. The Taylor Rule shines a light on loose monetary policy for Germany, while another recession indicator is beginning to flash Stateside.

Tech job cuts, Nasdaq’s drop and a homebuilder slump ahead
Technology
Unemployment
Inflation
Germany
US

Tech job cuts, Nasdaq’s drop and a homebuilder slump ahead

November 25, 2022

This week’s charts address US tech job cuts and the falling Nasdaq’s close relationship with indicators tied to the tech sector. Still, Silicon Valley has made California so rich over time that it’s approaching German GDP levels. We examine stocks in different inflation regimes and the decades-long US “twin deficit.” On the inflation front, advanced economies are racking up emerging market-like price increases, but there is relief ahead for German producers. Finally, US homebuilders are set for a downturn, while the Chinese aren’t going out to watch movies.

Crypto debacle, bulls versus bears and the US election cycle
China
Equities
Crypto
Elections
US

Crypto debacle, bulls versus bears and the US election cycle

November 18, 2022

This week’s charts cover the crypto crash and FTX meltdown, the dearth of positive days for stocks this year, and a sentiment measure that suggests an end to the bear market may be near. In the wake of the US interims, we examine the election cycle’s relationship with equities, unemployment and inflation. In China, we track the renewed spike in Covid-19 cases and analyse the disconnect between different measures of inflation.

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