Charts of the Week

As year-end approaches, this week’s charts examine years of winners and losers in different asset classes. We track easing inflation in Europe, equity performance around historic inflation peaks, and examine an alternative US CPI that would reflect soft rents. The Taylor Rule shines a light on loose monetary policy for Germany, while another recession indicator is beginning to flash Stateside.

This week’s charts address US tech job cuts and the falling Nasdaq’s close relationship with indicators tied to the tech sector. Still, Silicon Valley has made California so rich over time that it’s approaching German GDP levels. We examine stocks in different inflation regimes and the decades-long US “twin deficit.” On the inflation front, advanced economies are racking up emerging market-like price increases, but there is relief ahead for German producers. Finally, US homebuilders are set for a downturn, while the Chinese aren’t going out to watch movies.

This week’s charts cover the crypto crash and FTX meltdown, the dearth of positive days for stocks this year, and a sentiment measure that suggests an end to the bear market may be near. In the wake of the US interims, we examine the election cycle’s relationship with equities, unemployment and inflation. In China, we track the renewed spike in Covid-19 cases and analyse the disconnect between different measures of inflation.

This week’s charts look at Germany from different perspectives, including the trade relationship with China and rapidly declining consumer confidence. We also examine Japan, which is experiencing a domestic travel boom and slowing industrial production. Meanwhile, the prices of many commodities are stabilising; US crude oil production is rising while its petroleum reserves hit multi-decade lows. Finally, investors are hoarding more cash as stocks struggle.

As the world gathers to discuss climate policy at COP27 in Egypt, this week’s charts look at historic emissions trends from several angles. We show how emissions per capita have evolved for major economies that have made progress in the shift to clean energy. We also examine the potential for a Powell pivot amid an environment of slumping stocks and shipping rates but persistently low unemployment.

This week’s charts cover the US from multiple angles: the pandemic-driven boom and bust in household wealth; the hot labour market and a potential mismatch between jobs and job seekers; the shrinking volume of imports through the nation’s biggest port; the West Coast house-price slump; and falling rents. We also address the continued slump by Hong Kong stocks, and turn to Europe to investigate stubborn inflation and crashing natural-gas prices.

This week’s charts cover Europe’s business cycle and the surprisingly low financial stress level in the US, while examining China from several angles: amid lockdowns and a surprise delay to GDP figures, a measure of business loans is surprisingly strong. We also examine UK bankruptcies, the devastating collapse in bond prices, Vladimir Putin’s popularity with Russians, and a small-business indicator that suggests US inflation will ease.

This week’s charts examine the teetering US housing market from multiple angles -- including historic mortgage rate trends and affordability -- and track the GOP’s chances of regaining control of the House given the unsettled economy. We also cover European inflation, which is becoming baked into consumers’ medium-term expectations even as some nations suffer more than others. In Japan, our charts track pressure on household incomes and the underpriced yen, while Norway’s oil bounty and sovereign wealth fund are also in focus.

This week’s charts cover market stress related to Credit Suisse, the slowdown in global semiconductors, the prospect of a year-end US stock rally and the break from a historic correlation between falling equity markets and higher bond returns. We also examine demographic headwinds in Asian countries including China, whose GDP gap with the US is widening again. Finally, an anomalous gap between measures of the US economy has evaporated, while social research shows how a healthier, cleaner and more equal society is linked to national wealth.

This week’s charts cover the importance of Norwegian gas and LNG in a world with shrinking Russian shipments; Britain’s currency and bond market shock after the Truss tax cut surprise; devalued equities and balance-of-payments alerts flashing red in emerging markets; Germany’s spiraling business cycle; and predicting recessions through a more sophisticated reading of consumer sentiment.

This week’s charts cover elevated youth unemployment, the dollar’s dominance, the end of China’s decades-long trade deficit with South Korea, and Japan’s widening trade deficit. They also take a deep dive into Brazil: Lula is set to retake power from Jair Bolsonaro, even as the nation has avoided the inflation and energy crises seen elsewhere in the world.

This week’s charts cover the relationship between prosperity and corruption; Germany’s warming climate and natural gas use; European inflation expectations and consumer psychology; the relationship between a rising dollar and lower US earnings; the surprising disconnect between US inventories and consumer confidence; and a tight post-pandemic US labour market where some firms are hungrier for workers than others.

This week’s charts cover the prospects for more lockdowns in China; evidence that nonfarm payrolls are usually undercounted in August; a hot job market in the US that scoops up the unemployed quickly; historic inflation scenarios and their effects on financial markets and real estate; rising fuel prices in Indonesia; and the shrinking balance sheets and tightening cycles of the world’s central banks.

This week’s charts cover the electricity-price surge besieging Europe, the low stocks of natural gas on the continent as winter approaches, a German trade balance that’s turned negative as energy import costs soar, the baby bust that might halve South Korea’s population, Russia’s sliding imports amid Western sanctions, dwindling emerging market currency reserves as policymakers fight King Dollar, volatile conditions making US inflation trickier to predict, more economic data dispelling the US recession thesis, and the difference between Europe’s supply-shock inflation and the demand-led phenomenon in the US.

This week’s charts cover the hotter and cooler spots for US inflation, the pressure that US wage growth is putting on consumer prices, the highest US capacity utilization in more than a decade, the inability of European wages to keep up with inflation, the US dollar’s surge and its worrying implications, Japan’s imported inflation due to energy needs, the increasing number of emerging markets facing higher yield pressure, the scope of inflation’s effects on a multitude of countries, and the tentative rebound in Hong Kong tourism.

This week’s charts cover US inflation that is closer to a steady plateau than proving transitory, the lingering effects of Covid-19 absences on the labour market, the beginnings of a slump in Canadian real estate, the likelihood of a weaker Chinese yuan, increasing emigration from Hong Kong, and how the US corporate bond market is suffering its worst slump in recent history – unlike previous Fed tightening cycles that saw positive performance amid very different macroeconomic conditions.

This week’s charts cover the Bank of England’s gloomy macroeconomic forecasts, Indonesia’s consumer price index, emerging markets’ growing debt burden, the drop in US productivity, the ECB’s bond purchases and TARGET2 balances, hedge funds outperforming the S&P 500, China’s surging trade surplus, and tourism returning to Thailand.

This week’s charts cover US seasonally adjusted vs non-seasonally adjusted GDP, US NBER recession dating indicators, Conference board recession indicators, US labour market, VIX vs yield spread business cycle, global house price indicators, US house price vs long-run trend, US and Sweden house prices, Hong Kong Phillips curve and semi-conductor inventories.

This week’s charts cover Germany business cycle, EU natural gas inventory, global central bank tightening, US CEO confidence, a new model for u*, US employment growth outliers, China consumer confidence, China regional GDP, China construction starts and Rhine water levels.