Macrobond blog

Views, insights and observations from our experts

All posts

Employment

Federal Reserve

Macroeconomics

Forecasting NFP: A mixed job market, a slight slowdown

Our guest blogger used Macrobond to construct a model for US jobs ahead of Friday’s figures.

Germany

Forecasting

Macroeconomics

Nowcast

Nowcasting Germany’s stagnant industrial production as the nation debates its economic model

Our guest bloggers use Macrobond and Indicio to predict that the June figure will fall to a six-month low.

Employment

Forecasting

Macroeconomics

Forecasting NFP with the Fed’s next move in focus

We are predicting that July NFP will come in at 193,000 – slightly below the 200,000 consensus.

Employment

Federal Reserve

Inflation

USD

U.S. labour’s leading indicators

A comprehensive understanding of where US employment is headed is key for gauging monetary policy.

US

CPI

UK a different story; unlike the US 'soft landing' outlook: CPI trends and BoE's rate cycle

US 'soft landing' outlook back on the table after last week's lower-than-expected 3% CPI release

AI

Labour market

Japan

CPI

Forward guidance on… wages? Japan’s companies promise higher pay and consider AI – as stocks and GDP forecasts perk up

As Japanese demographics suddenly turn inflationary, companies are scrambling for solutions.

Japan

US

Liquidity

Fed

Bank of Japan

Why didn’t Japan suffer its own version of the US regional bank crisis? History, incentives, regulation and experience

Unrealised bond losses at Japanese banks are less than 10 percent of their US equivalents.

Europe

Food Prices

Inflation

Euro area consumer food price inflation: problematic, but past its peak

Guest blogger Simon Barry says easing food price inflation will be welcomed by households and the ECB.

Forecasting

Germany

Industry Production

Macrobond x Indicio accurately forecasts German industry production

Our model predicts 1.05% (MoM) for German industrial production. How close did we get?

Inflation

Monetary Policy

Recession

Supply chain

Could inflation surprise us all and collapse?

Too many economists may be attached to the “higher for longer” narrative.

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