Back to all blogs
Blogs
September 8, 2021

Who will replace Angela Merkel as German chancellor?

What the polls and betting markets show
Share on LinkedIn
Share on X
In-house blogger
Guest blogger
Julius Probst
,
PhD
Application Specialist
Macrobond
All opinions expressed in this content are those of the contributor(s) and do not reflect the views of Macrobond Financial AB.
All written and electronic communication from Macrobond Financial AB is for information or marketing purposes and does not qualify as substantive research.
Editor:

Germans go to the polls on 26 September to choose their first new leader in 16 years. But Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party may not come out on top, according to recent voter polls. Even the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which has always lagged the CDU, is getting more support – raising the prospect of a three-party coalition that includes the Greens.

While polls can sometimes mislead, research shows that prediction markets – where people trade on the outcome of events – are more reliable. This next chart, based on data from PredictIt, also shows the SPD polling ahead of the CDU. In fact, it puts the odds of Vice-Chancellor and SPD Deputy Leader Olaf Scholz becoming the next German chancellor at more than 60% -- double the chances he had just a couple of weeks ago!

Close
Previous
Next
Close
Cookie consent
We use cookies to improve your experience on our site.
To find out more, read our terms and conditions and cookie policy.
Accept
Heading
This is some text inside of a div block.
Click to enlarge
Premium data
This chart integrates premium data from our world-leading specialist data partners (When viewing the chart in Macrobond, premium data sources will only display for premium data subscribers)
Learn more
/solutions/source-and-synthesize
Revision History
This chart features Macrobond’s unique Revision History data which shows how key macroeconomic indicators have been revised over time
Learn more
https://help.macrobond.com/tutorials-training/3-analyzing-data/analysis-tree/using-the-series-list/vintage-data/
Change Region
This chart benefits from Macrobond's unique Change Region feature which allows the same analysis to be instantly applied to different regions. Click on learn more to see it in action!
Learn more
/insights/tips-and-tricks/change-region-function