Macrobond Blog | Macroeconomic insights

The Bank of Japan ends negative rates, but the inflation revolution looks set to continue

Tetsuo Harry Ishihara

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Tetsuo Harry Ishihara

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Pre-Budget Outlook

Ahead of tomorrow’s UK Spring Budget by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, we have compiled a number of charts showing the current state of play in the UK economy, looking at areas such as the level of Government borrowing and tax revenues, headwinds to investment in the construction sector and sustained pressure on the National Health Service following the Covid-19 pandemic.

Will Peters

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Will Peters

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Artur Kulinski

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Artur Kulinski

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Kevin Fang

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Kevin Fang

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Paul Saksik

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Paul Saksik

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February 28, 2024

China’s outlook, early 2024: manufacturing PMI and modest recovery prospects

Siwat Nakmai

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Siwat Nakmai

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February 27, 2024

Fed caution aligned with inflation internals, core PCE likely to be sticky

Meghna Shah

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Meghna Shah

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February 20, 2024

The Bank of Japan drops more hints about NIRP

Lift-off from negative rates could come as soon as April.

Tetsuo Harry Ishihara

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Tetsuo Harry Ishihara

,

February 9, 2024

As US consumers power economic growth, don’t expect Europeans to follow suit as incomes recover

Our guest blogger shows how EU, UK and US savings rates have diverged.

Martina Daga

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Martina Daga

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Annette Beacher

Nick Fitzpatrick

Elijah Oliveros-Rosen

Grégoire Haftman

Dr. Tariq Chaudhry

Dr. Helen Johnson

Berthon Jean Baptiste

Daniel McCormack

Jonathan Kearns

Francois Trahan

Enguerrand Artaz

Ombretta Signori

Japan Exchange Group (JPX)

Fabio Scacciavillani

Ruta Prieskienyte

Reinder Haitsma

Carlos de Sousa

Andreas Steno Larsen

Jahangir Hussain

Joshua Sebastian

Kate Everett-Allen

Daniel Tenengauzer

Dr Naif Al-Ghaith

Andrew Salomone Viteritti

Dr Stephen Kirchner

Michael Brisley

Tomas Liljeborg

Dr David Skilling

Daisuke Karakama

Juan Carlos Diaz

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The Bank of Japan ends negative rates, but the inflation revolution looks set to continue

Pre-Budget Outlook

China’s outlook, early 2024: manufacturing PMI and modest recovery prospects

Fed caution aligned with inflation internals, core PCE likely to be sticky

The Bank of Japan drops more hints about NIRP

As US consumers power economic growth, don’t expect Europeans to follow suit as incomes recover

The BOJ is dropping hints that Japan’s “lift-off” from NIRP is likely just months away

The Bank of Japan’s tailwinds: inflation, a labour crunch and corporate profits

Data matters most when it’s a ‘data-dependent’ stance for central banks globally

Who are the leading players in the cash-JGBs market?

A bold look at sovereign default risks

Modeling how German inflation might be easing with Indicio

The clock is ticking on the US economy

The Bank of Japan’s "tweak and hold" as inflation ratchets higher

Yuan is weighed down by monetary divergence – but supported by the current account

No need to tighten, but too early to cut. How long will the ECB stay on pause?

Watching the NBER’s six recession indicators as US growth confounds the skeptics

The ECB assesses this cycle’s slowdown with a “pause” likely

Forecasting inflation Down Under using Indicio – and watching for pressure on the Aussie dollar

Assessing scenarios for oil amid unrest in the Middle East

Japan is obsessed with wages

Non-farm payrolls may show only modest softening in the US job market

Using Indicio to forecast inflation on both sides of the Atlantic

A divergent outlook for central banks after a year of tightening

Is cash king given higher rates? Examining the alternatives for asset allocation

Will markets force the BOJ to finally abandon negative rates?

An expanded BRICS will take some time to make progress on “de-dollarisation”

Heatmapping the world: in search of inflation’s hottest and coldest spots

Medical costs are likely to make US inflation stickier

America and China have traded places

Japan’s inflation revolution

Forecasting NFP: A mixed job market, a slight slowdown

Nowcasting Germany’s stagnant industrial production as the nation debates its economic model

Forecasting NFP with the Fed’s next move in focus

U.S. labour’s leading indicators

Will the US suffer another recession in the near term?

Will the US dollar depreciate further as the global economy recovers?

Why you should care about turmoil in Kazakhstan

Why US inflation will slow and help the BOJ

Why didn’t Japan suffer its own version of the US regional bank crisis? History, incentives, regulation and experience

China's housing market bounces back from pandemic

Who will replace Angela Merkel as German chancellor?

When will the US dollar rebound?

Where is US real estate heading in 2022? A forecast from Indicio

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What’s next for global trade? Using Indicio to create a forecast

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What's next for oil prices?

What makes a 'failing' pension fund?

What can we say about Brexit?

US boom, euro gloom?

UK a different story; unlike the US 'soft landing' outlook: CPI trends and BoE's rate cycle

The savings glut of the wealthy

The post-pandemic future looks brighter for the UAE

Will Powell channel his inner Volcker?

The Kuroda Code: no virtuous wage-price spiral in Japan

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Saudi Arabia must persist in its diversification drive

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Many people are going to be very wrong in 2023

Macrobond x Indicio accurately forecasts German industry production

Guest blog: Key lessons from the demise of Trussonomics

Is US monetary policy too easy right now?

Is China’s house price bubble ready to burst?

Indian vegetable prices collapse on oversupply

Indicio and Macrobond beat the street predicting inflation and US housing

Institutions are deteriorating in emerging markets – especially China

How prepared are emerging markets for inflation?

How Southeast Asia benefits from China's reopening in eight charts

How quickly does the COVID-19 vaccine lead to a drop in infections?

How to find the right collaboration tool for your teams

Pandemic hits BRIC economic growth

How much progress has been made towards gender equality?

High-frequency data: from optional to indispensable

High-Frequency Indicators – a goldmine of real-time information

High-frequency data shows UK and US job markets heating up

Globalisation remains resilient through Covid

GCC: A stellar 2022 performance, headwinds in 2023

Full speed ahead for China’s electric vehicles

Forward guidance on… wages? Japan’s companies promise higher pay and consider AI – as stocks and GDP forecasts perk up

Forecasting personal consumption expenditures (PCE) with Indicio

Forecasting nonfarm payrolls (NFP) with Indicio

Five labour market charts you need to watch in 2023

Eight FX and rate charts to watch right now

Euro area consumer food price inflation: problematic, but past its peak

Escape the prison of Excel

ECB policy faces tough test

Do eurozone sovereign debt spreads still matter?

De-dollarisation: the yuan’s use grows, but the greenback’s global role is proving to be stubborn

Credit is still expanding in the US, but conditions are getting tighter

Emerging markets in Africa buckle under mountains of debt

Could inflation surprise us all and collapse?