From sovereign credit ratings to the surging influence of artificial intelligence, this edition of Macro Moves explores how global shifts are reshaping markets. We track China’s green transition and examine the link between EU credit ratings and sovereign borrowing costs with data from Scope.

At the same time, we highlight the rise of institutional crypto adoption through CFTC positioning data, shifts in Macao’s tourism recovery, and the continued dominance of the Magnificent 7 in U.S. equity markets. Our analysis also shows how much of the S&P 500’s returns stem from AI-related companies, while portfolio simulations reveal how markets align - or diverge - from U.S. performance. Finally, we dive into frontier markets, where volatility, returns and diversification potential create a unique investment landscape.

Each chart cuts through complexity, turning data into clarity. Together, they illustrate how Macrobond’s global coverage and visualization tools connect insights across regions, sectors, and asset classes.

Crypto Market Positioning: Weekly Insights From the CFTC

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The adoption of crypto by institutional investors is steadily increasing, with traditional asset managers increasingly considering it as an alternative investment for their clients.

The CFTC provides authoritative data on market positioning, and Macrobond translates this information into actionable insights.

Our dashboard makes tracking speculative trends in the crypto market fast, intuitive, and effortless. Users can monitor long and short positions, net positioning, speculative ratios and trader activity on a weekly basis, helping to spot shifts in market sentiment and potential turning points.

Measuring the Monthly Momentum of the Magnificent 7

The Magnificent 7 now account for more than one-third of the entire S&P 500, underscoring their outsized influence on the US market — even amid rising concerns and volatility throughout 2025.

Leveraging Macrobond’s extensive data on both stock prices and market capitalizations, our unique visualization tracks monthly absolute shifts in market value.

This approach not only highlights the momentum of the Magnificent 7 but also allows our users to explore trends across any set of stocks they wish to include, providing a fresh lens on market dynamics.

What If the US Didn’t Exist for Investors?

Using MSCI equity database, we construct two simulated portfolios of global equity markets based on their correlation with the S&P 500:

• The “US-Linked” portfolio includes markets in the highest 90th percentile of correlation with the S&P 500
• the “US-Averse” portfolio comprises markets in the lowest 10th percentile.

Each portfolio is equally weighted to avoid concentration, and daily returns are averaged across the selected markets.

The top chart shows the simulated index performance, with index levels rebased to100 at 2015. The second chart presents the annual performance of each portfolio alongside the S&P 500 for comparison.

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Who Holds the H-1B and Where Talents Come From?

The recent decision by President Trump to raise fees for the H-1B visa has sparked strong reactions both in the U.S. and abroad. Long regarded as a key pathway for skilled foreign professionals, the program continues to attract both criticism and support. Some argue that it displaces American workers, while others see it as essential for sustaining U.S. innovation and global competitiveness.

With access to the full U.S. Department of State database in Macrobond, users can track H-1B visa allocations, analyze trends by nationality and sector, and gain a comprehensive view of the flow of international talent into the United States.

Macrobond Brings Scope’s EU Sovereign Ratings Into Focus

Scope, the European credit rating agency, provides forward-looking assessments of sovereign issuers’ ability and willingness to meet debt obligations to private creditors in full and on time.

Covering a broad range of economic, fiscal, external-sector, financial-system and ESG-related factors, Scope assigns credit ratings on the internationally recognized scale

from D to AAA.

With regularly updated data from Scope and Macrobond’s powerful visualization tools, changes in EU sovereign ratings are easy to see and follow.

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Euro Bond Yields Tell the Story as Credit Quality Shifts

Sovereign credit ratings and government bond yields are key indicators of market confidence. In theory, stronger credit should mean lower borrowing costs, and across euro area countries this pattern broadly holds — but the details are more nuanced.

Speculative-grade sovereigns remain at the top of the yield table, while investment-grade peers typically finance themselves more cheaply.

The most striking shift occurs in the transition from highly speculative into non-investment-grade territory, where yields drop sharply as credit quality improves.

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Rising Debt Across Europe Signals of Ongoing Fiscal Pressure

Amid the ongoing political crisis in France, media attention has focused on the country’s rising debt.

Scope projects that French debt will continue increasing, surpassing the critical psychological threshold of 120% of GDP by 2027 — one of the highest levels in the European Union, with only Italy higher.

Germany’s debt is also expected to rise, though more moderately, reaching around 70% of GDP by 2030.

The Next Wave of Global Investing: Frontier Markets in Macrobond

Macrobond delivers extensive and unmatched coverage of equity indices, including for frontier markets that are increasingly capturing investor attention.

We’ve handpicked five representative markets per region and created a concise dashboard showcasing essential performance metrics — explore annualized volatility, drawdowns, CAGR and  Sharpe ratios, providing a clear picture of both risk and return.

Historical data spanning multiple years allows for trend analysis and cycle identification, while the intuitive visualizations and advanced analytics equips investors to compare markets, assess diversification opportunities and make informed allocation decisions across global frontier markets.

Macao’s Tourist Comeback: Who’s Back and Who’s Still Missing

Macao may be the Asian capital of casinos and gambling, yet traditionally, over 70%of its visitors come from mainland China. Since COVID‑19, the government has been actively working to “reignite” tourism from Europe, the United States and India.

Thanks to new visitor-by-country data in Macrobond, our roulette-inspired visualization lets you see at a glance how tourism in Macao is recovering compared to pre-COVID levels.

Visitors from mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan still top the ranking, but some European countries are starting to appear as well. Notably, Spain and Italy are two countries whose tourist arrivals have already exceeded pre-COVID levels.

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China’s EV Market Hits Majority Share, Reshaping Auto Industry

Atthe recent UN summit, President Xi reaffirmed China’s commitment to cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 7-10% by 2035, stressing that the country remains focused on green initiatives despite a global slowdown in ESG discussions.

Macrobond provides extensive data on the green transition, including the latest figures on the share of internal combustion engine (ICE)versus new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China. The trend is striking — in 2022,NEVs already made up one-third of the market, and as of today their share has surpassed 50%.

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How Does the S&P 500 Perform Without AI?

The global development of artificial intelligence technologies continues to accelerate, with the United States holding a clear leadership position. A substantial share of the country’s largest technology companies are directly engaged in AI innovation, making them significant drivers of equity market performance.

Drawing on Macrobond’s comprehensive equity pricing database, we identified 17 S&P 500 constituents with direct or indirect involvement in AI technologies. By excluding these companies from the index, we observe that nearly half of the S&P 500’s year-to-date returns can be attributed to AI-related firms.

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