From political sentiment to evolving market dynamics, this edition of Macro Moves highlights currency momentum amid a weaker dollar, shifts in the 10s30s yield curve, and dominant signals in equity markets.

At the same time, we dig into hidden seasonality patterns in stocks, sector performance in the U.S. real estate, and how Bitcoin’s correlations with traditional assets are evolving. This month also brings daily insights into Palantir, reconstructed policy curves in Japan, and new perspectives on U.S. trade flows.

Each chart is designed to cut through complexity, transforming data into clear and actionable insights. Together, they highlight how Macrobond’s structured data and smart visualizations help investors connect the dots and see markets with greater precision.

Data Breakthroughs - Long-standing datasets now gaining broader relevance

Tracking Shifts in U.S. Trade with UN Comtrade Data

The UNComtrade database— the world’s largest repository of official international trade statistics —is now fully integrated in Macrobond.

With more than 90 million time series, it offers unmatched granularity on imports and exports by commodity and trading partner, reaching down to the most detailed SITC classification levels.

This visualization highlights the 20 U.S. trade categories with the largest absolute changes in net trade over the past year. It provides a clear view of which sectors are driving shifts in the U.S. trade balance — particularly relevant today as tariff dynamics continue to evolve.

Uncovering S&P 500 Seasonal Trends Since 1928

September is historically tough for the S&P 500, with negative monthly returns appearing in nearly 55% of cases and an average return of around -1.17%.

Macrobond’s daily data back to 1928 lets you explore these seasonal patterns in detail, analyze month-by-month variations, and uncover insights that aren’t visible from headline averages alone.

With our intuitive visualizations, you can quickly spot recurring trends, assess potential risks, and make more informed investment decisions.

Tracking Global Dynamics in the 30s10s Yield Curve Spread

Long-term bond yields are rising across many developed economies, with the gap between10- and 30-year maturities widening in parallel.

A steeper 10s30s spread often reflects changing investor expectations around long-term growth, inflation, and fiscal sustainability.

Macrobond’s broad coverage of government benchmarks makes it possible to track the 10s30s yield curve spread in detail, offering a clear lens on evolving global market dynamics.

Daily Insights into Palantir Technologies

All technologies are transforming industries and redefining market dynamics. As these innovations accelerate, companies that harness AI effectively are shaping the future of markets and creating new opportunities for investors.

Palantir, once regarded as a leading AI innovator, has recently faced challenges.

With Macrobond, you can access daily pricing data for Palantir Technologies (PLTR) and thousands of global equities, providing timely insights to inform your investment decisions.

Data Blind spots - Underused datasets with high analytical potential

‍Global Currencies Shine as the Dollar Weakens

The weakness of the U.S. dollar this year has reshaped the global FX landscape, creating space for many currencies to outperform.

This visualization tracks the performance of 25 major currencies, combining year-to-date returns with a relative strength index to highlight momentum trends.

Thanks to Macrobond’s coverage of over 160 daily FX rates, you can easily compare movements across developed and emerging markets — unlocking a clearer view of global currency dynamics.

Sector Insights from the U.S. Real Estate Market

Real estate has long been regarded as a compelling alternative to traditional investments, offering income and diversification benefits.

The story becomes even more interesting when we look beneath the surface of broad indices to see how individual sectors perform.

With Macrobond, you gain access to all FTSE Nareit sectoral indices, letting you track the performance of U.S. REIT sectors and global real estate markets with ease —unlocking insights you won’t find anywhere else.

Echoes of Bitcoin in Traditional Markets

As institutional investors deepen their involvement in the crypto market, the relationship between digital assets and traditional asset classes—equities, bonds, and commodities—has taken on greater significance.

This chart illustrates the one-year rolling correlation between Bitcoin and 12 major traditional assets, offering a day-by-day perspective on how connections between the new and established markets continue to evolve.

Please note: fixed-income data used in this chart sourced from ICE BofAML premium add-on. Please contact your account team for access..

Measuring Signals in Global Markets Using MACD

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is a widely used tool inequity trading, designed to capture short-term shifts in market sentiment.

Using Macrobond’s extensive database of equity indices, we constructed a framework to classify the dominant signal on a monthly basis.

A month is considered bearish if more than 50% of its trading days show a negative MACD signal, and bullish otherwise. This approach smooths daily noise and provides a clear picture of prevailing market sentiment across global equity markets.

Data Additions - newly added, useful and clearly valuable datasets

‍Monitoring President Trump’s Approval Trends

Tracking political data has become increasingly important for understanding public sentiment and political dynamics.

The addition of a new survey from Rasmussen Reports allows us to monitor the approval ratings of President Donald Trump throughout his second term.

With detailed category breakdowns, this data provides actionable insights for understanding political trends and anticipating potential market reactions.

Tracking Japan’s Market-Implied Policy Curve

Japan’s bond market has come under pressure, with 30-year JGB yields climbing above to multi-decade highs amid political uncertainty and the BoJ’s retreat from yield-curve control. This surge in long-dated yields makes it increasingly important to track the implied policy rate curve for insights into market expectations.

At Macrobond, we’ve addressed this need by reconstructing the curve using 3-monthTONA futures. This approach provides not only a clear view of the market-implied policy path, but also the flexibility to analyze its evolution over time.

New Global Policy Rate Forecasts in Macrobond

Policy rate forecasting lies at the core of market strategy. For investors, analysts, and policymakers alike, understanding the likely direction of central bank moves is essential for anticipating market trends and risks.

To support this, Macrobond has expanded its database with a powerful new addition: policy rate forecasts from Scope Ratings, covering over 18 central banks worldwide.

Our enhanced dashboard goes beyond simple projections, showing how many uniform25bp hikes or cuts are priced in for the year ahead — providing a clear and comparable perspective across economies.

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