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January 24, 2021

COVID-19 uncovers surprising economic trend

The pandemic has left some people better off financially.
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In-house blogger
Guest blogger
Julius Probst
,
PhD
Application Specialist
Macrobond
All opinions expressed in this content are those of the contributor(s) and do not reflect the views of Macrobond Financial AB.
All written and electronic communication from Macrobond Financial AB is for information or marketing purposes and does not qualify as substantive research.
Editor:

Economic downturns typically hurt people in the wallet. But the COVID-19 pandemic continues to show up some surprising trends.

In the US, for example, disposable incomes continued to climb in 2020 amid the biggest slowdown since the Great Depression in the 1930s. As our chart shows, household income surged by 10% in the second quarter even as nominal GDP dropped a record 9%.

Government stimulus checks, higher unemployment benefits and other policy measures to support people through the pandemic certainly played a role. So too the lockdowns that kept people at home instead of out spending.

As the Biden administration prepares to distribute a third wave of direct relief payments, could the additional income lead to pent-up demand and drive up the risk of inflation when the pandemic ends?

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