Fortnightly insights into what's moving the global markets.
Trump’s return to the White House has been unconventional—and markets are responding. This chart pack compares his early days to previous administrations, highlighting market dynamics through data-driven analysis, not political narrative.
The US trade war has fundamentally altered net equity flows to the United States. In Q1 2025 92 billion dollars flowed to the US. Thus far in Q2 2025 that number is about half at 22 billion.
Global markets have entered a new era of volatility under the second Trump Presidency. Safe havens gained appeal, with gold outperforming most asset classes. Chinese, European, and Emerging Equities have all rallied strongly—contrary to early trade-war fears.
The S&P 500 is sideways, finally crawling back to its pre-liberation day highs. In contrast, Trump’s first term saw much less volatile equity growth.
Historically, Democratic presidents have seen much higher variance in market performance during their first 150 days, with both the top and bottom performances attributed to Democrats. More recently though, Trump's 2nd term has seen a near flat performance of the index with only three presidential terms in the modern era having had a worse stock market start.
While Trump’s initial term was roughly in line with historical median, his second term is off to a different start, falling more than 10% in his first 150 days. This could reflect Fed rate cuts, renewed fiscal stress, and investor unease around trade tensions. Biden’s first 150 days, by comparison, saw a more stable performance near the historical average.
The U.S. yield curve has steepened notably since Inauguration Day, with long-term rates drifting higher across the board. Short-term rates have stayed relatively anchored, indicating that the Fed is still expected to cut, but perhaps at a slower pace than initially forecast. The move higher in long yields may be contributing to dollar weakness, as investors demand greater compensation to hold U.S. debt.
Since the inauguration, job postings across most sectors have declined, with the steepest drops in accounting, banking, and tech-related fields. Only a handful of categories—such as pharmacy, education, and medical roles—have seen modest growth. High-skill, white-collar sectors appear to be facing the greatest pullback, suggesting employers may be bracing for an AI revolution.
Trump started his term at nearly a net 0 approval rating. As many people saw him favorably as not. As of early June, his net favorability has slid to -5.7. This slide has been nearly linear with a small jump post liberation day.
Markets (based on PredictIt data) are increasingly pricing in cabinet instability, with “Other / None” now representing about 50% of the odds. Bessent, Lutnick, and Hegseth are viewed as the most likely to exit first— Lutnick due to his roles in tariff policy, Hegseth following a string of public missteps, and Bessent as he’s seen as a potential successor to Powell. The speculation reflects broader concerns about cohesion within Trump’s cabinet.
