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17 Jan 2020Macro `n Cheese

Economic Supervision of all the Gretas

Roger has finally decided to cover a (forgive the pun) “hot” topic: carbon dioxide emissions. In particular, he addresses what he thinks is a common misperception - that it is only very poor, or very rich, countries that are sustainable.

10 Jan 2020Macro `n Cheese

Ready for Trends to Break in 2020?

In his first blog post of the year (and decade!), our favorite economist gives a somewhat different outlook for the coming year, primarily using charts available to all Macrobond users in the Market Maps library. The picture he paints of developments in 2020 looks quite different from market consensus.


20 Dec 2019Macro `n Cheese

The Top 5 Events That Shook Markets in 2019

Violent protests, Incendiary Brexit talks and capricious trade negotiations. Our team of analysts has created a list of the top five most impactful events of 2019, with an accompanying chart, of course. Check out the top five events that will have effects long after the dust from new year’s rockets has settled.

13 Dec 2019Macro `n Cheese

Low Productivity Isn’t a Bug – It’s a Feature!

In his last blog of the year and of the decade, Roger takes us on a ride into the subconscious of the economic debate, which means that it does not contain too many graphs, but hopefully an interesting idea or two.

06 Dec 2019Macro `n Cheese

Resurrecting the Phillips Curve

This week, Roger was set to keep it simple. He found one half-done graph on his desktop and ended up with an entirely new way of looking at labor markets, one which brings the old Phillips Curve back to life.

29 Nov 2019Macro `n Cheese

Latin Spring…or Autumn?

Political & economic turmoil is not unusual for Latin America. It is a region of outliers—both in the past and present. In this post, Macrobond New York reviews the state of the region and its most troubling economies.

22 Nov 2019Macro `n Cheese

Squinted Interest Rate Crystal Gazing

After some comments on last week’s post, Roger has squinted his eyes one more time trying to see if the crystal ball reads any clearer on interest rate developments. Our take: “it’s complicated.”

15 Nov 2019Macro `n Cheese

Interest Rate Crystal Gazing

This week we’re going back to the basics of, or maybe even the – admittedly somewhat tragic – raison d'être for our own in-house economist; the (future) ups and downs of interest rates and financial markets.

08 Nov 2019Macro `n Cheese

Recession Influenza

In this week’s post, Roger tries to track the recession bug that’s currently spreading over the world and he tries to trace its origins all the way back to the mysterious ‘patient zero’. – But, come on Roger, isn’t the real question how many more central-bank-administered flu-shots we need to save us from another economic cold?

01 Nov 2019Macro `n Cheese

Is the Chinese Economy Flat-lining?

Taking the cue from a recent paper on China, Roger constructs an activity indicator that contrasts with official data, but which still seems to pass the difficult hurdle of validation.

25 Oct 2019Macro `n Cheese

Trade & Tariffs in Context

Your half-time “Trade War” report from Macrobond New York.

18 Oct 2019Macro `n Cheese

US Bank Reserves, Excessive or Exhausted?

04 Oct 2019Macro `n Cheese

A Bet on Europe is a Bet on the World

If you feel our in-house economist has focused a lot on the European economy over the past few weeks, you’re absolutely right. Today, he explains why and concludes his exposé with a sobering view on the outlook for the Euro Area.

27 Sep 2019Macro `n Cheese

Fiscal and monetary push make a case for re-accelerated growth into 2020

This week, Christopher Dembik, Head of Macro Research at Saxo Bank and Research Fellow at the Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE), makes a guest appearance on the Macro n' Cheese blog. He provides us with an optimistic yet realistic economic outlook, first on China and then the world.

20 Sep 2019Macro `n Cheese

Did Mario step into fiscal space at his last monetary policy meeting?

This week, Roger has written an account of the ECB's latest monetary policy decision and how it reflects increasing political tensions within Europe.

06 Sep 2019Macro `n Cheese

What’s going on in Germany?

Over the past few months, poor German economic developments have become a more frequent issue in financial media. But how bad is it really? – That’s what Roger will be looking into in this semester’s first blog post.

12 Jul 2019Macro `n Cheese

Global Update: Economic risks rise and markets rally

Today on the blog, Dr. Alex Joiner, chief economist at IFM Investors and esteemed Macrobond user, shares his monthly economic report with us. In short, global trade tensions have been a key focus of global markets, with ongoing risks being interpreted differently by bond and equity markets that both rallied strongly. Faced with subdued inflationary pressures and downside risks to growth, advanced economy central banks have almost unanimously ‘doubled down’ on their dovish tone with markets now pricing in further policy easing.

07 Jun 2019Macro `n Cheese

To cut or to hike? That is the question.

Roger calls in the US cavalry to clear up some issues surrounding market participants’ view on the Fed Funds Rate

31 May 2019Macro `n Cheese

Surfing the Stock Market

In this week’s blog, Roger takes a look at the drivers of the Australian stock market. Unsurprisingly, growth has something to do with it, and… – Well you better read on to see what else is important Down Under.

24 May 2019Macro `n Cheese

Colonial Revival

This week, Roger revisits and mass-produces the graph that's been getting the most attention from a recent post. It's not one of his own, but Branko Milanovic’s ‘elephant graph’, which Roger now expands to a host of former colonies. Well, imitation is the highest form of flattery.

17 May 2019Macro `n Cheese

At the Intersection of Exogenous and Endogenous Growth

This week, Roger has been quite unbearable at the office, reverting to his old sins of name-dropping a bunch of (wise, old,) dead, white guys almost all the time. It’s Kaldor here and Verdoorn there. The silver lining is that it resulted in quite an interesting discussion about how to respond when the R-word (recession) is communicated by the NBER's business cycle dating committee. (Btw, shouldn’t every country have one of those?)

09 May 2019Macro `n Cheese

On a Slow Boat to China

The US-China trade negotiations have put the strength of the Chinese economy firmly back in focus. How bad is it? – That’s what Roger tries to find out this week.

03 May 2019Macro `n Cheese

Pundits Dropping in a Half-pipe

There have been a few changes in perspective when it comes to the economic and financial outlook this year. Roger takes a look at the latest PMI figures and wonders if the pundits will do yet another 180 this year.

26 Apr 2019Macro `n Cheese

Working in the Coal Mine

This week, Roger has been moving some sixteen terabytes of data working in the code mine where he nonetheless unearthed a couple of charts highlighting how the US administration’s attempts to increase coal production are panning out.

12 Apr 2019Macro `n Cheese

By the Way

Is the Phillips-relation non-linear, and is it possible to utilize this relationship in current tight labor markets to jump-start inflation?

04 Apr 2019Macro `n Cheese

Hassling Hassett

A short and snappy read from Roger this week, on the topic of residual seasonality

29 Mar 2019Macro `n Cheese

Running a “High-Pressure” Economy

This week, Roger returns to a subject that he has delved into many a time in this forum, the Phillips-curve. But instead of discussing whether it is dead, dormant or alive and kicking he goes looking for evidence that running a “high-pressure” economy is good policy. How does this relate to the current economic policy debate? – Well, read on!

22 Mar 2019Macro `n Cheese

A shout-out to our friends at ECB!

Roger takes a look at the Orphanides rule and comes to a conclusion about the likelihood of an ECB rate hike.

15 Mar 2019Macro `n Cheese

Stop being so sensitive!

You’d be forgiven for thinking the title refers to financial prima donnas, when in fact I’m reflecting on something that has populated a fair share of my conversations with clients – the looks and moves of the yield curve.

08 Mar 2019Macro `n Cheese

Expectation Management

This week Roger takes a deeper look at how the PMI compares to "real" data, and posits that it is a close relative to the good old confidence fairy. While these forward-looking indices are very popular they may need a pinch of salt (or two) before being liberally applied to your economic and financial outlook.

01 Mar 2019Macro `n Cheese

If Anything, a Slight Improvement

Lately, recession whispers have been present in more than a few conversations, but the consensus at our conference was that, though not far off, it won’t be happening in 2019.

21 Feb 2019Macro `n Cheese

Fifty Shades of Gray

It’s over. Not life as we know it, but the very first Macrobond Conference. Find out what views were discussed and get the accompanying charts to work with in the application.


21 Dec 2018Macro `n Cheese

Macrobond Market Map for the Euro area

Just in time for the holidays Roger has put together a new Market Map that covers the Euro area. Get a preview of what's in it here.

13 Dec 2018Macro `n Cheese

Some Measures, More Than Others

In this week’s macro note Roger has taken a look at the European housing market. Why? – Well cross-country comparisons are always tricky.

06 Dec 2018Macro `n Cheese

Cheap or Dear

One thing Roger rarely discusses is his personal investment policy, but today he reveals that he is – fittingly, given his persona – fully invested in bonds... And why that might not be the best idea.

29 Nov 2018Macro `n Cheese

Inflation tea leaves in a stream of consciousness

The analytical process of our own favorite economist has always been somewhat opaque, and given what he reveals today, it seems very much like the stream of consciousness of a somewhat restricted mind. – Yes, Roger’s piece is all about inflation again…

23 Nov 2018Macro `n Cheese

Hold My BEER for a Quid

The title is probably as amusing as Roger’s piece for this week gets. There's a whole lot of data exploring going on to come to – in Roger’s own words – a rather dull conclusion. We, on the other hand, think that it’s quite interesting to see that the pound sterling is currently well in line with what fundamentals would suggest.

15 Nov 2018Macro `n Cheese


Roger takes a look at the some of the graphs that have recently been circulating about the Italian economy and its dismal debt situation

08 Nov 2018Macro `n Cheese

Quite a predicament

According to Roger, ECB is in quite the predicament. Activity indicators are easing. Inflation, especially the core kind, is very low. And yet, there is something else going on. Up-stream cost pressures are on the rise. How should the ECB interpret this? – To get Roger’s answer, read on!

31 Oct 2018Macro `n Cheese

Early bird

This week, Roger has opted for an early release of the blog as he built a tool for dissecting the upcoming US labor market data. This means there is less ranting (on Roger’s side) and more charting for us readers – A welcome change (according to Roger)!

26 Oct 2018Macro `n Cheese

Current currencies

- It’s alive! This week Roger is clearly preparing for Halloween carving out a couple of monstrosities of graphs. We pray they will not turn on their creator but instead be put to use for the sake of the common good.

19 Oct 2018Macro `n Cheese

Economic Outlook: Measuring the Risk Factors

Ten years after the global financial crisis, Roger uses the application to measure where we stand now, using the IMF’s Word Economic Outlook risk factors.

12 Oct 2018Macro `n Cheese

Not Everything is Black & (William) White

After reading a rather ominous column by the economist William White, and hearing that Paul Romer was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics, our very own market pundit, Roger Josefsson, was inspired to build a few charts and write a few comments. It wouldn’t be Roger if there weren’t clouds on the horizon, but timing is – as Roger puts it – everything…

05 Oct 2018Macro `n Cheese


After being on the move for a long time, not to mention jet-lagged, Roger was all Powell-ed up after attending a talk by the FED-chair.

28 Sep 2018Macro `n Cheese

A FED watch-out!

Today Roger walks us through the economic discussions currently surrounding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meetings.

14 Sep 2018Macro `n Cheese


A break-down of the upcoming (28 Sept) personal consumption expenditure deflator

07 Sep 2018Macro `n Cheese

Framing EMEs

There’s an EME-crisis everywhere you turn these days, it seems. In today’s post Roger puts the current woes through the lens of central bank actions.

24 Aug 2018Macro `n Cheese

Li Keqiang Index

In this Macronote I thought I’d just give users the means to construct their own Li Keqiang index (LKI).

17 Aug 2018Macro `n Cheese

On the Cusp of a New Paradigm?

This week’s post is a short run through of recent Japanese data.

06 Aug 2018Macro `n Cheese

What did I miss?

Welcome back! Since people are gradually starting to come back from vacations, Roger – also just back – thought it would be a good idea to write a wrap-up of what has happened, complete with some graphs of course.

21 Jun 2018Macro `n Cheese

Macronote #3

A monetary VAR model for Sweden (or sub for a country of your choice), with forecasts for inflation, GDP, and policy rates

07 Jun 2018Macro `n Cheese

It's Now or Never!

This week Roger ponders just what is going on with the US labor market – are wages on the rise, or not?!

23 May 2018Macro `n Cheese

A Grim Outlook for Italy’s Debt Ratio

This week Roger steps aside so Sebastian, an esteemed Macrobond intern, can run his forecast model on what seems to be the topic on everybody’s lips - Italy. He takes a look at the recent developments there, and what the new administration might mean for the indebtedness of their struggling economy.

10 May 2018Macro `n Cheese

What if the SEK isn’t weak?

In this week’s blog Roger is answering a question that we all are asking, albeit from different perspectives; how about that SEK? Our perspective being the upcoming ‘vacances’, while others are more interested in making a buck. Or at least avoiding a loss. In typical fashion, our two-handed Chief Economist starts off with a question…

19 Apr 2018Macro `n Cheese

Macro ‘n Cheese is Back

Trump’s focus on China is not 280 characters short, it’s a long-held obsession

22 Mar 2018Macro `n Cheese

Investing the time

In this week’s post Roger is trying to chart out what the data says about the modern productivity paradox or, to (para)phrase it in a more familiar way: “you can see the robots everywhere, but in the productivity statistics”.

15 Mar 2018Macro `n Cheese

What if the stock market is the economy?

Despite demonstrating a complete lack of green thumbs (we have experts taking care of his office plants), in this edition of Macro-n-cheese Roger(squared) try to sow a new seed in the flora of business cycle models. A futile endeavor? You’ll be the judge.

08 Mar 2018Macro `n Cheese

The Euro crisis – A reminder

A gentle reminder from Roger that the Euro crisis is far from over.

01 Mar 2018Macro `n Cheese

How about that USD?

Roger takes a look at how capital flows can throw a spanner in the works for even the most robust of fundamental analyses, and leaves us with an FX-forecast of his own.

15 Feb 2018Macro `n Cheese

What just happened?

Strong economy, tight labor markets, nascent signs of accelerating wage inflation, massive unfunded fiscal stimulus, new skipper and helmsmen at the FED… – This week, Roger takes a look at the arguments put forward for a swifter pace (and more) of FED hikes, higher market interest rates and, possibly, lower stock markets.

08 Feb 2018Macro `n Cheese

How will Central Bank tightening affect bank profits?

In the face of Central banks’ tightening of monetary policy, Roger set out to trash a widely held opinion about banks’ net interest margins. What he learnt was that there is a lot, simply too much, going on in the banking sector to make any simplistic statements on how bank profits and term premia relate.

31 Jan 2018Macro `n Cheese

What monetary condition are you in?

What good are Monetary Conditions Indices (MCIs), we recently asked Roger. His answer was, for once, quite compelling: Well, even if we hardly have any interest rate left, we still want to understand how monetary policy works. That’s why the use of MCIs are even more important these days.

25 Jan 2018Macro `n Cheese

Dependence day

In this week’s blog Roger takes a look at some of the arguments for central banks staying independent. Not from politicians, though, but from each other. Alas, for the smaller ones, it might not be as easy as just having a flexible currency.

18 Jan 2018Macro `n Cheese

Taylor rules!

If you feel that this week’s post is of surprisingly high quality, it is probably because Roger has relied on ideas and input from a couple of esteemed colleagues, Alexander Pelle and Wadsworth Sykes, from our NY office. The theme? – Taylor rules! (And we think he means that literally.)

11 Jan 2018Macro `n Cheese

2018 Outlook Politics

In this first blog of 2018, Roger puts out a call to arms for 2018. Politicians in general and European ditto in particular, he says, must now take responsibility for a continued strong and equitable growth. Is Roger really anything but a spectre haunting Europe, we ask?


21 Dec 2017Macro `n Cheese

The Christmas Shopping Championships!

Will Your Country be the Regional Champion of Christmas Shopping?

14 Dec 2017Macro `n Cheese

Big in Japan

In Hemingway’s “The Sun Also Rises” the purposeless scion Mike tells the protagonist Jake of the two ways he went bankrupt: “Gradually and then suddenly." We would not be surprised if this dialogue inspired Roger to write this week’s piece on public debt in the land of the rising sun.

07 Dec 2017Macro `n Cheese

Party animals with a deaf-ear

Next week’s FOMC-meeting will prove interesting indeed. “Mysteriously” low inflation and continued monetary policy contraction do not mix. Roger believes this means the FED will soon pause. What do you think?

30 Nov 2017Macro `n Cheese

Frontier Markets, for index riders only?

In this week’s blog Roger goes meme-busting and advances a more systematic view of what “Frontier Markets” are, or at least should be.

23 Nov 2017Macro `n Cheese

Black gold or a curse?

We are in the run-up to the 173rd OPEC meeting, and of course our layman oil analyst couldn’t let such an opportunity pass unnoticed... So, what’s up with oil Roger?

16 Nov 2017Macro `n Cheese

Long only

We like to think of Roger as our very own “Éminence grise”, not because we think he’s very influential (God forbid!), but rather because he is such a perfect representative of the dismal science. In this week’s piece on fundamental stock market valuations we see him make yet another triste figure.

09 Nov 2017Macro `n Cheese

Monetary policy through the lens of history

This week Roger is trying to make a penance for the ill-doings of previous blogs on monetary policy. But will he really succeed in walking the straight and narrow? - Read on!

02 Nov 2017Macro `n Cheese

Doing the unthinkable

This week, our sometimes quixotic Roger Josefsson has set out to do the unthinkable and fight the long run Phillips curve! Does he succeed? Let us just say that he would probably have done better tilting at windmills.

26 Oct 2017Macro `n Cheese

Internet retail trade pays well, but few

In this week’s edition of Macro n’ Cheese Roger takes a look at how “e-tailing” is transforming the retail industry.

19 Oct 2017Macro `n Cheese

It’s Kryptonite!

In this week’s “Tales from the Cryptocurrencies” Roger latches on to the current Bitcoin-mania and lands in a communist utopia.

12 Oct 2017Macro `n Cheese

When Doves Cry

This week Roger takes a look at the labor markets of the United States, Euro Area, and United Kingdom.

05 Oct 2017Macro `n Cheese

Indecent talk

In this week's piece Roger delves into a nascent discussion on whether the Euro Area is finally out of the doldrums

28 Sep 2017Macro `n Cheese

Trading Ideas

This week Roger shares some thoughts on global trade, which he presented at the NABE conference in the US over the past weekend.

21 Sep 2017Macro `n Cheese

The Yellen Chart Pack – and then some…

If you thought it was time for a rethink, think again... The FED is making the same bet over and over

14 Sep 2017Macro `n Cheese

The Chinese wall of debt

Roger takes a look at whether China will ever exit the middle-income trap

07 Sep 2017Macro `n Cheese

Monetary Policy Normalization – “Quantitative Tightening”

In this post, I thought we would take a look at a few graphs related to the US Federal Reserve’s (FED’s) upcoming shrinking of the balance sheet.

31 Aug 2017Macro `n Cheese

Weekly analyses from our chief economist, Roger Josefsson.

Welcome to the first of many! This week's topic is the Swedish housing market.