Macrobond news list background image

Stay informed

2018

13 Dec 2018Macro `n Cheese

Some Measures, More Than Others

In this week’s macro note Roger has taken a look at the European housing market. Why? – Well cross-country comparisons are always tricky.

06 Dec 2018Macro `n Cheese

Cheap or Dear

One thing Roger rarely discusses is his personal investment policy, but today he reveals that he is – fittingly, given his persona – fully invested in bonds... And why that might not be the best idea.

29 Nov 2018Macro `n Cheese

Inflation tea leaves in a stream of consciousness

The analytical process of our own favorite economist has always been somewhat opaque, and given what he reveals today, it seems very much like the stream of consciousness of a somewhat restricted mind. – Yes, Roger’s piece is all about inflation again…

23 Nov 2018Macro `n Cheese

Hold My BEER for a Quid

The title is probably as amusing as Roger’s piece for this week gets. There's a whole lot of data exploring going on to come to – in Roger’s own words – a rather dull conclusion. We, on the other hand, think that it’s quite interesting to see that the pound sterling is currently well in line with what fundamentals would suggest.

15 Nov 2018Macro `n Cheese

UscITA!

Roger takes a look at the some of the graphs that have recently been circulating about the Italian economy and its dismal debt situation

08 Nov 2018Macro `n Cheese

Quite a predicament

According to Roger, ECB is in quite the predicament. Activity indicators are easing. Inflation, especially the core kind, is very low. And yet, there is something else going on. Up-stream cost pressures are on the rise. How should the ECB interpret this? – To get Roger’s answer, read on!

31 Oct 2018Macro `n Cheese

Early bird

This week, Roger has opted for an early release of the blog as he built a tool for dissecting the upcoming US labor market data. This means there is less ranting (on Roger’s side) and more charting for us readers – A welcome change (according to Roger)!

26 Oct 2018Macro `n Cheese

Current currencies

- It’s alive! This week Roger is clearly preparing for Halloween carving out a couple of monstrosities of graphs. We pray they will not turn on their creator but instead be put to use for the sake of the common good.

19 Oct 2018Macro `n Cheese

Economic Outlook: Measuring the Risk Factors

Ten years after the global financial crisis, Roger uses the application to measure where we stand now, using the IMF’s Word Economic Outlook risk factors.

12 Oct 2018Macro `n Cheese

Not Everything is Black & (William) White

After reading a rather ominous column by the economist William White, and hearing that Paul Romer was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics, our very own market pundit, Roger Josefsson, was inspired to build a few charts and write a few comments. It wouldn’t be Roger if there weren’t clouds on the horizon, but timing is – as Roger puts it – everything…

05 Oct 2018Macro `n Cheese

Powell-up!

After being on the move for a long time, not to mention jet-lagged, Roger was all Powell-ed up after attending a talk by the FED-chair.

28 Sep 2018Macro `n Cheese

A FED watch-out!

Today Roger walks us through the economic discussions currently surrounding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meetings.

14 Sep 2018Macro `n Cheese

Priceless

A break-down of the upcoming (28 Sept) personal consumption expenditure deflator

07 Sep 2018Macro `n Cheese

Framing EMEs

There’s an EME-crisis everywhere you turn these days, it seems. In today’s post Roger puts the current woes through the lens of central bank actions.

24 Aug 2018Macro `n Cheese

Li Keqiang Index

In this Macronote I thought I’d just give users the means to construct their own Li Keqiang index (LKI).

17 Aug 2018Macro `n Cheese

On the Cusp of a New Paradigm?

This week’s post is a short run through of recent Japanese data.

06 Aug 2018Macro `n Cheese

What did I miss?

Welcome back! Since people are gradually starting to come back from vacations, Roger – also just back – thought it would be a good idea to write a wrap-up of what has happened, complete with some graphs of course.

21 Jun 2018Macro `n Cheese

Macronote #3

A monetary VAR model for Sweden (or sub for a country of your choice), with forecasts for inflation, GDP, and policy rates

07 Jun 2018Macro `n Cheese

It's Now or Never!

This week Roger ponders just what is going on with the US labor market – are wages on the rise, or not?!

23 May 2018Macro `n Cheese

A Grim Outlook for Italy’s Debt Ratio

This week Roger steps aside so Sebastian, an esteemed Macrobond intern, can run his forecast model on what seems to be the topic on everybody’s lips - Italy. He takes a look at the recent developments there, and what the new administration might mean for the indebtedness of their struggling economy.

10 May 2018Macro `n Cheese

What if the SEK isn’t weak?

In this week’s blog Roger is answering a question that we all are asking, albeit from different perspectives; how about that SEK? Our perspective being the upcoming ‘vacances’, while others are more interested in making a buck. Or at least avoiding a loss. In typical fashion, our two-handed Chief Economist starts off with a question…

19 Apr 2018Macro `n Cheese

Macro ‘n Cheese is Back

Trump’s focus on China is not 280 characters short, it’s a long-held obsession

22 Mar 2018Macro `n Cheese

Investing the time

In this week’s post Roger is trying to chart out what the data says about the modern productivity paradox or, to (para)phrase it in a more familiar way: “you can see the robots everywhere, but in the productivity statistics”.

15 Mar 2018Macro `n Cheese

What if the stock market is the economy?

Despite demonstrating a complete lack of green thumbs (we have experts taking care of his office plants), in this edition of Macro-n-cheese Roger(squared) try to sow a new seed in the flora of business cycle models. A futile endeavor? You’ll be the judge.

08 Mar 2018Macro `n Cheese

The Euro crisis – A reminder

A gentle reminder from Roger that the Euro crisis is far from over.

01 Mar 2018Macro `n Cheese

How about that USD?

Roger takes a look at how capital flows can throw a spanner in the works for even the most robust of fundamental analyses, and leaves us with an FX-forecast of his own.

15 Feb 2018Macro `n Cheese

What just happened?

Strong economy, tight labor markets, nascent signs of accelerating wage inflation, massive unfunded fiscal stimulus, new skipper and helmsmen at the FED… – This week, Roger takes a look at the arguments put forward for a swifter pace (and more) of FED hikes, higher market interest rates and, possibly, lower stock markets.

08 Feb 2018Macro `n Cheese

How will Central Bank tightening affect bank profits?

In the face of Central banks’ tightening of monetary policy, Roger set out to trash a widely held opinion about banks’ net interest margins. What he learnt was that there is a lot, simply too much, going on in the banking sector to make any simplistic statements on how bank profits and term premia relate.

31 Jan 2018Macro `n Cheese

What monetary condition are you in?

What good are Monetary Conditions Indices (MCIs), we recently asked Roger. His answer was, for once, quite compelling: Well, even if we hardly have any interest rate left, we still want to understand how monetary policy works. That’s why the use of MCIs are even more important these days.

25 Jan 2018Macro `n Cheese

Dependence day

In this week’s blog Roger takes a look at some of the arguments for central banks staying independent. Not from politicians, though, but from each other. Alas, for the smaller ones, it might not be as easy as just having a flexible currency.

18 Jan 2018Macro `n Cheese

Taylor rules!

If you feel that this week’s post is of surprisingly high quality, it is probably because Roger has relied on ideas and input from a couple of esteemed colleagues, Alexander Pelle and Wadsworth Sykes, from our NY office. The theme? – Taylor rules! (And we think he means that literally.)

11 Jan 2018Macro `n Cheese

2018 Outlook Politics

In this first blog of 2018, Roger puts out a call to arms for 2018. Politicians in general and European ditto in particular, he says, must now take responsibility for a continued strong and equitable growth. Is Roger really anything but a spectre haunting Europe, we ask?

2017

21 Dec 2017Macro `n Cheese

The Christmas Shopping Championships!

Will Your Country be the Regional Champion of Christmas Shopping?

14 Dec 2017Macro `n Cheese

Big in Japan

In Hemingway’s “The Sun Also Rises” the purposeless scion Mike tells the protagonist Jake of the two ways he went bankrupt: “Gradually and then suddenly." We would not be surprised if this dialogue inspired Roger to write this week’s piece on public debt in the land of the rising sun.

07 Dec 2017Macro `n Cheese

Party animals with a deaf-ear

Next week’s FOMC-meeting will prove interesting indeed. “Mysteriously” low inflation and continued monetary policy contraction do not mix. Roger believes this means the FED will soon pause. What do you think?

30 Nov 2017Macro `n Cheese

Frontier Markets, for index riders only?

In this week’s blog Roger goes meme-busting and advances a more systematic view of what “Frontier Markets” are, or at least should be.

23 Nov 2017Macro `n Cheese

Black gold or a curse?

We are in the run-up to the 173rd OPEC meeting, and of course our layman oil analyst couldn’t let such an opportunity pass unnoticed... So, what’s up with oil Roger?

16 Nov 2017Macro `n Cheese

Long only

We like to think of Roger as our very own “Éminence grise”, not because we think he’s very influential (God forbid!), but rather because he is such a perfect representative of the dismal science. In this week’s piece on fundamental stock market valuations we see him make yet another triste figure.

09 Nov 2017Macro `n Cheese

Monetary policy through the lens of history

This week Roger is trying to make a penance for the ill-doings of previous blogs on monetary policy. But will he really succeed in walking the straight and narrow? - Read on!

02 Nov 2017Macro `n Cheese

Doing the unthinkable

This week, our sometimes quixotic Roger Josefsson has set out to do the unthinkable and fight the long run Phillips curve! Does he succeed? Let us just say that he would probably have done better tilting at windmills.

26 Oct 2017Macro `n Cheese

Internet retail trade pays well, but few

In this week’s edition of Macro n’ Cheese Roger takes a look at how “e-tailing” is transforming the retail industry.

19 Oct 2017Macro `n Cheese

It’s Kryptonite!

In this week’s “Tales from the Cryptocurrencies” Roger latches on to the current Bitcoin-mania and lands in a communist utopia.

12 Oct 2017Macro `n Cheese

When Doves Cry

This week Roger takes a look at the labor markets of the United States, Euro Area, and United Kingdom.

05 Oct 2017Macro `n Cheese

Indecent talk

In this week's piece Roger delves into a nascent discussion on whether the Euro Area is finally out of the doldrums

28 Sep 2017Macro `n Cheese

Trading Ideas

This week Roger shares some thoughts on global trade, which he presented at the NABE conference in the US over the past weekend.

21 Sep 2017Macro `n Cheese

The Yellen Chart Pack – and then some…

If you thought it was time for a rethink, think again... The FED is making the same bet over and over

14 Sep 2017Macro `n Cheese

The Chinese wall of debt

Roger takes a look at whether China will ever exit the middle-income trap

07 Sep 2017Macro `n Cheese

Monetary Policy Normalization – “Quantitative Tightening”

In this post, I thought we would take a look at a few graphs related to the US Federal Reserve’s (FED’s) upcoming shrinking of the balance sheet.

31 Aug 2017Macro `n Cheese

Weekly analyses from our chief economist, Roger Josefsson.

Welcome to the first of many! This week's topic is the Swedish housing market.