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15 Feb 2018Macro `n Cheese

What just happened?

Strong economy, tight labor markets, nascent signs of accelerating wage inflation, massive unfunded fiscal stimulus, new skipper and helmsmen at the FED… – This week, Roger takes a look at the arguments put forward for a swifter pace (and more) of FED hikes, higher market interest rates and, possibly, lower stock markets.

08 Feb 2018Macro `n Cheese

How will Central Bank tightening affect bank profits?

In the face of Central banks’ tightening of monetary policy, Roger set out to trash a widely held opinion about banks’ net interest margins. What he learnt was that there is a lot, simply too much, going on in the banking sector to make any simplistic statements on how bank profits and term premia relate.

31 Jan 2018Macro `n Cheese

What monetary condition are you in?

What good are Monetary Conditions Indices (MCIs), we recently asked Roger. His answer was, for once, quite compelling: Well, even if we hardly have any interest rate left, we still want to understand how monetary policy works. That’s why the use of MCIs are even more important these days.

25 Jan 2018Macro `n Cheese

Dependence day

In this week’s blog Roger takes a look at some of the arguments for central banks staying independent. Not from politicians, though, but from each other. Alas, for the smaller ones, it might not be as easy as just having a flexible currency.

18 Jan 2018Macro `n Cheese

Taylor rules!

If you feel that this week’s post is of surprisingly high quality, it is probably because Roger has relied on ideas and input from a couple of esteemed colleagues, Alexander Pelle and Wadsworth Sykes, from our NY office. The theme? – Taylor rules! (And we think he means that literally.)

11 Jan 2018Macro `n Cheese

2018 Outlook Politics

In this first blog of 2018, Roger puts out a call to arms for 2018. Politicians in general and European ditto in particular, he says, must now take responsibility for a continued strong and equitable growth. Is Roger really anything but a spectre haunting Europe, we ask?


21 Dec 2017Macro `n Cheese

The Christmas Shopping Championships!

Will Your Country be the Regional Champion of Christmas Shopping?

14 Dec 2017Macro `n Cheese

Big in Japan

In Hemingway’s “The Sun Also Rises” the purposeless scion Mike tells the protagonist Jake of the two ways he went bankrupt: “Gradually and then suddenly." We would not be surprised if this dialogue inspired Roger to write this week’s piece on public debt in the land of the rising sun.

07 Dec 2017Macro `n Cheese

Party animals with a deaf-ear

Next week’s FOMC-meeting will prove interesting indeed. “Mysteriously” low inflation and continued monetary policy contraction do not mix. Roger believes this means the FED will soon pause. What do you think?

30 Nov 2017Macro `n Cheese

Frontier Markets, for index riders only?

In this week’s blog Roger goes meme-busting and advances a more systematic view of what “Frontier Markets” are, or at least should be.

23 Nov 2017Macro `n Cheese

Black gold or a curse?

We are in the run-up to the 173rd OPEC meeting, and of course our layman oil analyst couldn’t let such an opportunity pass unnoticed... So, what’s up with oil Roger?

16 Nov 2017Macro `n Cheese

Long only

We like to think of Roger as our very own “Éminence grise”, not because we think he’s very influential (God forbid!), but rather because he is such a perfect representative of the dismal science. In this week’s piece on fundamental stock market valuations we see him make yet another triste figure.

09 Nov 2017Macro `n Cheese

Monetary policy through the lens of history

This week Roger is trying to make a penance for the ill-doings of previous blogs on monetary policy. But will he really succeed in walking the straight and narrow? - Read on!

02 Nov 2017Macro `n Cheese

Doing the unthinkable

This week, our sometimes quixotic Roger Josefsson has set out to do the unthinkable and fight the long run Phillips curve! Does he succeed? Let us just say that he would probably have done better tilting at windmills.

26 Oct 2017Macro `n Cheese

Internet retail trade pays well, but few

In this week’s edition of Macro n’ Cheese Roger takes a look at how “e-tailing” is transforming the retail industry.

19 Oct 2017Macro `n Cheese

It’s Kryptonite!

In this week’s “Tales from the Cryptocurrencies” Roger latches on to the current Bitcoin-mania and lands in a communist utopia.

12 Oct 2017Macro `n Cheese

When Doves Cry

This week Roger takes a look at the labor markets of the United States, Euro Area, and United Kingdom.

05 Oct 2017Macro `n Cheese

Indecent talk

In this week's piece Roger delves into a nascent discussion on whether the Euro Area is finally out of the doldrums

28 Sep 2017Macro `n Cheese

Trading Ideas

This week Roger shares some thoughts on global trade, which he presented at the NABE conference in the US over the past weekend.

21 Sep 2017Macro `n Cheese

The Yellen Chart Pack – and then some…

If you thought it was time for a rethink, think again... The FED is making the same bet over and over

14 Sep 2017Macro `n Cheese

The Chinese wall of debt

Roger takes a look at whether China will ever exit the middle-income trap

07 Sep 2017Macro `n Cheese

Monetary Policy Normalization – “Quantitative Tightening”

In this post, I thought we would take a look at a few graphs related to the US Federal Reserve’s (FED’s) upcoming shrinking of the balance sheet.

31 Aug 2017Macro `n Cheese

Weekly analyses from our chief economist, Roger Josefsson.

Welcome to the first of many! This week's topic is the Swedish housing market.