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US Election Tracker

With the US election just a few days away, we want to give you the chance to follow some of the most interesting polls and expectations  leading up to the election.  

To see the latest data in any of these charts, use Macrobond Live (It’s free!). Just click “TRACK UPDATES” below the chart, sign up and then save it in the Watchlist tab.

Macrobond users can download the chart to save in their Macrobond library, watchlist to track updates to the data.

Polls

Trump has so far not managed to close the polling gap according to Real Clear Politics (RCP).

RCP polling breakdown by US states. Any blue bar indicates Biden is more favored and a red bar indicates Trump is more favored.

The generic ballot is a poll question that asks voters whether they’ll vote for Democrats or Republicans for Congress, and historically it’s been a decent predictor of the House popular vote.

The online betting market, PredictIt, has priced in ~60% chance of a Democratic sweep in November.

According to PredictIT, Democrats have more than a 60% chance of winning both the House and the Senate.

PredictIT prices suggest that Democrats have the chance of winning the Electoral College by a wide margin.

PredictIt odds for a peaceful transfer of power.

Financial Impact By Administration

S&P 500 returns broken down by administration.

USD strength broken down by administration.

How balanced has the federal budget been under each president since Richard Nixon?

Public debt in relation to GDP  by administration.

The total return of 10 year US government bonds broken down by administration.

Total return on yield showing the reaction from the bonds´ market to different administrations.

The US is starting to normailze when it comes to equity and news uncertainty.


General

According to the Pew Research Center, public trust in the government has steadily fallen since the 1970’s.

According to Pew Research, these are the most challenging threats to America.

Job growth under each president and party affiliation is seen as a legacy of their presidential tenure. External factors such as the 2008 global financial crisis, have played out more favorably for president Obama that came into office at the lowest point. The consequence of the coronavirus pandemic may do the same for Biden if he is declared the winner in this year’s presidential election.

A comparison of job growth evolution of president’s first term since Harry Truman.

Democrats are the only cohort of American voters who have increased expectations on a Year over Year basis.

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