Selection of new functionality
In Macrobond 1.3 we have introduced a flag for each value in the time series that tells if the value is a forecast or not. When graphed, these values can be distinguished by a separate style to the historical values.
A value can be flagged as a forecast in several different ways: by values entered by the user and that are appended to the series, by using the formula language or by using the Regression analysis.
When a value flagged as a forecast is used in calculations, the calculated value will also be flagged as a forecast.
Adding forecasts to series in the Series list
You can enter your own forecasts as values that will be appended to the series used in the Series list. There is a new tab in the Series list called Forecast where you will see a list of all series used in the document. The Edit button will open a dialog where you can enter your forecasts.
In the dialog you can select if you want to enter your forecasts as absolute values, relative values or percentage changes.
You can also select if you want to enter the forecast as absolute dates or as a relative point in the future.
The forecasts are appended to the original series. The next step in the process is to fill in missing values. This will also fill in missing values between your forecasted values. This process will then be followed by currency conversion, frequency conversion and finally evaluation of formulas.
Adding forecasts by using the Forecast analysis
The Forecast analysis works in a similar way to the forecast functionality in the Series list. The difference is that you add the forecasted values to the time series already processed by some analyses.
New formula functions
There are two new formula functions related to forecasts: FlagForecast and IsForecast.
FlagForecast is used to flag a value as a forecast and IsForecast can be used to determine if a value is flagged.
Here is an example that will extend a series by four new forecasted values. The new values are 2% higher than the last value of the series.
ExtendLinear(uscons2259, End(uscons2259) + 4, FlagForecast(Last(uscons2259)*1.02))
Forecasted values in charts
The graph style for forecast values can be set separately from the ordinary values. This can be done in the chart or in a style sheet. When there are forecasted values in the data used by a graph, the legend will show both styles. The default style sheet will use the same color of the graph, but with some transparency.
Here is an example where another style sheet has been applied:
Enhancements to the Regression analysis
The Regression analysis has been enhanced with calculation of forecasts and some additional statistics.
Forecasts can be calculated as long as there are values in the dependent series. This can be the case if you have lagged the series or have specified an estimation sample range that ends in the past.
The new statistics are:
- Uncertainty band for the estimated series
- Probability values for the estimated parameters
- The information criteria AIC, HQ and Schwarz
Import/export of Fill range sets
You can now export and import lists of dates used in the Fill range chart feature. There is also a selection of predefined range sets provided by Macrobond, such as US recessions.
Search results are sorted according to relevance
The result when you search for time series is now sorted according to relevance. You can still show the result in alphabetical order by clicking on the Title header.
Selection of new content
- Detailed Consumer Confidence Surveys from the Conference Board. The Surveys provide monthly information about the various business indicators like: Business Conditions, Employment and Consumer Confidence in the United States. Besides the present situation, the data describes future expectations concerning interest rates, stock prices and buying plans across the economy. The surveys are available in the Economics – by country major > United States > Surveys > Consumer Surveys > Conference Board
- Flow of Funds for Japan. Flow of Funds is quarterly detailed data sourced from the Bank of Japan showing financial transactions among various economic instruments. It records movements of financial assets and liabilities among units, such as financial institutions, corporations and households for each financial instrument entitled transactions. The data is available under: Economics – by country major > Japan > Flow of Funds
- Continued expansion of the Eurostat database. Macrobond continues to expand its data coverage from Eurostat’s principal database New Cronos. The Eurostat database contains macroeconomic and social statistics data covering European Union (EU) Member states and many of the central European countries, Japan, the United States and the main economic partners of the EU. Macrobond has recently added the following categories: Balance of Payments, Construction, Building and Civil Engineering, Labour Market, Production, Retail Trade & Services and expanded the National Accounts category. The database also includes Foreign Finance, Government & Public Finance, Monetary Statistics and Prices and is being continuously being expanded.
- UK Real Estate Prices from Nationwide. Increased depth of the coverage. The indices are available under Economics – by country major > United Kingdom > Construction & Real Estate > Real Estate > Real Estate Prices > Nationwide
Macrobond will very soon also offer Markit PMI, OECD MEI, GFI Global Single Name (incl. Corporates & Supranational) Credit Default Swaps Market Data and fixed income and index derivatives from OMX Nasdaq. Further information will follow.