Canadian Housing Market – Live Dashboard

By Wadsworth Sykes

This always up to date chart pack covers the Canadian housing market using CREA data in the Macrobond platform.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade Associations, providing data from real estate boards across Canada. CREA and Macrobond have partnered up to offer a free trial of both.

UBS Real Estate Bubble index

Index Methodology: The index traces the fundamental valuation of housing markets, the valuation of cities in relation to their country and economic distortions (lending and building booms). Tracking current values, the index uses the following risk-based classifications: depressed (score below –1.5), undervalued (–1.5 to –0.5), fair-valued (–0.5 to 0.5), overvalued (0.5 to 1.5) and bubble risk (above 1.5). This classification is aligned with historical bubble episodes.

The index score is a weighted average of the following five standardized city sub-indices: price-to-income and price-to-rent (fundamental
valuation), change in mortgage-to-GDP ratio and change in construction-to-GDP ratio (economic distortion) and relative price-city-tocountry indicator.

Sales to new listings ratio
MLS home price indicies
MLS HPI benchmark price
Months of inventory
Dollar volume
New listings

High frequency GDP forecast

Inspired by the recently published Weekly Economic Index, from the Federal Reserve of New York. The first principal component of the high frequency data (below) is fed into a regression model that automatically lags PC1 to the point of highest correlation with Real GDP growth (YoY%).  The resulting output is a weekly tracker of the “real economy” that forecasts YoY% GDP growth for Canada.

Real GDP growth in Canada, high frequencey forecast

You can now try out the Macrobond platform including the CREA database. Learn more.

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