2020 US Election Tracker

After a surprising Super Tuesday, we took a look at some political data we have in Macrobond to see how the 2020 Election is shaping up. Similarly to our COVID19 chart pack, this collection of charts is published dynamically, so it’ll always be updated with the latest data.

Presidential

39 months into his presidency, Trump’s approval rating lies below his predecessors’.

presidential approval rating

However, the change in Trump’s approval rating since entering office is in line with other modern Presidents.

change in presidential approval ratings

The online betting market, PredictIt, priced in a 55% chance that trump will be re-elected.

predictIt 2020 presidential winner

Betting on Biden increased dramatically after an unexpectedly strong performance on Super Tuesday.  

democratic presidential nomination - polling vs online betting

Mike Pence will likely be debating a woman at the vice-presidential debate in Salt Lake City this October. 

2020 vice presidential nominee

Multiplying PredictIt odds by the number of delegates per state, we can get a rough forecast of how the Democratic primary could play out. 

democratic presidential primaries

Congressional

Congress appears to remain split as Democrats retain control of the House and Republicans retain control of the Senate.

congress generic ballot polls
balance of power after 2020 election

Constituents

In the past year, current economic conditions and consumer expectations improved across Democrats, Republicans and Independents.   

consumer sentiment by party supporters

These charts will automatically updated when new data is released, so you can come back to this article to track developments as the election progresses.

Charts and commentary by Wadsworth Sykes

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