Economic insights, inspiring analyses, and beautiful charts, all powered by Macrobond

Yield Curves: Nominal and Real

The modern business cycle in advanced economies is mostly about nominal shocks that are being transmitted to the real economy. In this post, I look at the real yield curve; nominal yields adjusted for inflation (and inflation expectations).

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A Grim Outlook for Italy’s Debt Ratio

This week Roger steps aside so Sebastian, an esteemed Macrobond intern, can run his forecast model on what seems to be the topic on everybody’s lips – Italy. He takes a look at the recent developments there, and what the new administration might mean for the indebtedness of their struggling economy.

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What if the SEK isn’t weak?

In this week’s blog Roger is answering a question that we all are asking, albeit from different perspectives; how about that SEK? Our perspective being the upcoming ‘vacances’, while others are more interested in making a buck. Or at least avoiding a loss. In typical fashion, our two-handed Chief Economist starts off with a question…

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Investing the time

In this week’s post Roger is trying to chart out what the data says about the modern productivity paradox or, to (para)phrase it in a more familiar way: “you can see the robots everywhere, but in the productivity statistics”.

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What if the stock market is the economy?

Despite demonstrating a complete lack of green thumbs (we have experts taking care of his office plants), in this edition of Macro-n-cheese Roger(squared) try to sow a new seed in the flora of business cycle models. A futile endeavor? You’ll be the judge.

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How about that USD?

Roger takes a look at how capital flows can throw a spanner in the works for even the most robust of fundamental analyses, and leaves us with an FX-forecast of his own.

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What just happened?

Strong economy, tight labor markets, nascent signs of accelerating wage inflation, massive unfunded fiscal stimulus, new skipper and helmsmen at the FED… – This week, Roger takes a look at the arguments put forward for a swifter pace (and more) of FED hikes, higher market interest rates and, possibly, lower stock markets.

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How will Central Bank tightening affect bank profits?

In the face of Central banks’ tightening of monetary policy, Roger set out to trash a widely held opinion about banks’ net interest margins. What he learnt was that there is a lot, simply too much, going on in the banking sector to make any simplistic statements on how bank profits and term premia relate.

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What monetary condition are you in?

What good are Monetary Conditions Indices (MCIs), we recently asked Roger. His answer was, for once, quite compelling: Well, even if we hardly have any interest rate left, we still want to understand how monetary policy works. That’s why the use of MCIs are even more important these days.

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Dependence day

In this week’s blog Roger takes a look at some of the arguments for central banks staying independent. Not from politicians, though, but from each other. Alas, for the smaller ones, it might not be as easy as just having a flexible currency.

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