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This week Roger steps aside so Sebastian, an esteemed Macrobond intern, can run his forecast model on what seems to be the topic on everybody’s lips – Italy. He takes a look at the recent developments there, and what the new administration might mean for the indebtedness of their struggling economy.
In this week’s blog Roger is answering a question that we all are asking, albeit from different perspectives; how about that SEK? Our perspective being the upcoming ‘vacances’, while others are more interested in making a buck. Or at least avoiding a loss. In typical fashion, our two-handed Chief Economist starts off with a question…
Despite demonstrating a complete lack of green thumbs (we have experts taking care of his office plants), in this edition of Macro-n-cheese Roger(squared) try to sow a new seed in the flora of business cycle models. A futile endeavor? You’ll be the judge.
Strong economy, tight labor markets, nascent signs of accelerating wage inflation, massive unfunded fiscal stimulus, new skipper and helmsmen at the FED… – This week, Roger takes a look at the arguments put forward for a swifter pace (and more) of FED hikes, higher market interest rates and, possibly, lower stock markets.
In the face of Central banks’ tightening of monetary policy, Roger set out to trash a widely held opinion about banks’ net interest margins. What he learnt was that there is a lot, simply too much, going on in the banking sector to make any simplistic statements on how bank profits and term premia relate.
What good are Monetary Conditions Indices (MCIs), we recently asked Roger. His answer was, for once, quite compelling: Well, even if we hardly have any interest rate left, we still want to understand how monetary policy works. That’s why the use of MCIs are even more important these days.