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This week Roger takes a deeper look at how the PMI compares to “real” data, and posits that it is a close relative to the good old confidence fairy. While these forward-looking indices are very popular they may need a pinch of salt (or two) before being liberally applied to your economic and financial outlook.
The analytical process of our own favorite economist has always been somewhat opaque, and given what he reveals today, it seems very much like the stream of consciousness of a somewhat restricted mind. – Yes, Roger’s piece is all about inflation again…
The title is probably as amusing as Roger’s piece for this week gets. There’s a whole lot of data exploring going on to come to – in Roger’s own words – a rather dull conclusion. We, on the other hand, think that it’s quite interesting to see that the pound sterling is currently well in line with what fundamentals would suggest.
According to Roger, ECB is in quite the predicament. Activity indicators are easing. Inflation, especially the core kind, is very low. And yet, there is something else going on. Up-stream cost pressures are on the rise. How should the ECB interpret this? – To get Roger’s answer, read on!