Economic insights, inspiring analyses, and beautiful charts, all powered by Macrobond

Yield Curves: Nominal and Real

The modern business cycle in advanced economies is mostly about nominal shocks that are being transmitted to the real economy. In this post, I look at the real yield curve; nominal yields adjusted for inflation (and inflation expectations).

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Stop being so sensitive!

You’d be forgiven for thinking the title refers to financial prima donnas, when in fact I’m reflecting on something that has populated a fair share of my conversations with clients – the looks and moves of the yield curve.

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Expectation Management

This week Roger takes a deeper look at how the PMI compares to “real” data, and posits that it is a close relative to the good old confidence fairy. While these forward-looking indices are very popular they may need a pinch of salt (or two) before being liberally applied to your economic and financial outlook.

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Fifty Shades of Gray

It’s over. Not life as we know it, but the very first Macrobond Conference. Find out what views were discussed and get the accompanying charts to work with in the application.

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Cheap or Dear

One thing Roger rarely discusses is his personal investment policy, but today he reveals that he is – fittingly, given his persona – fully invested in bonds… And why that might not be the best idea.

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Inflation tea leaves in a stream of consciousness

The analytical process of our own favorite economist has always been somewhat opaque, and given what he reveals today, it seems very much like the stream of consciousness of a somewhat restricted mind. – Yes, Roger’s piece is all about inflation again…

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Hold My BEER for a Quid

The title is probably as amusing as Roger’s piece for this week gets. There’s a whole lot of data exploring going on to come to – in Roger’s own words – a rather dull conclusion. We, on the other hand, think that it’s quite interesting to see that the pound sterling is currently well in line with what fundamentals would suggest.

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UscITA!

Roger takes a look at the some of the graphs that have recently been circulating about the Italian economy and its dismal debt situation

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Quite a predicament

According to Roger, ECB is in quite the predicament. Activity indicators are easing. Inflation, especially the core kind, is very low. And yet, there is something else going on. Up-stream cost pressures are on the rise. How should the ECB interpret this? – To get Roger’s answer, read on!

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