Economic insights, inspiring analyses, and beautiful charts, all powered by Macrobond

Yield Curves: Nominal and Real

The modern business cycle in advanced economies is mostly about nominal shocks that are being transmitted to the real economy. In this post, I look at the real yield curve; nominal yields adjusted for inflation (and inflation expectations).

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What’s going on in Germany?

Over the past few months, poor German economic developments have become a more frequent issue in financial media. But how bad is it really? – That’s what Roger will be looking into in this semester’s first blog post.

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Global Update: Economic risks rise and markets rally

Today on the blog, Dr. Alex Joiner, chief economist at IFM Investors and esteemed Macrobond user, shares his monthly economic report with us. In short, global trade tensions have been a key focus of global markets, with ongoing risks being interpreted differently by bond and equity markets that both rallied strongly. Faced with subdued inflationary pressures and downside risks to growth, advanced economy central banks have almost unanimously ‘doubled down’ on their dovish tone with markets now pricing in further policy easing.

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Surfing the Stock Market

In this week’s blog, Roger takes a look at the drivers of the Australian stock market. Unsurprisingly, growth has something to do with it, and… – Well you better read on to see what else is important Down Under.

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Colonial Revival

This week, Roger revisits and mass-produces the graph that’s been getting the most attention from a recent post. It’s not one of his own, but Branko Milanovic’s ‘elephant graph’, which Roger now expands to a host of former colonies. Well, imitation is the highest form of flattery.

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At the Intersection of Exogenous and Endogenous Growth

This week, Roger has been quite unbearable at the office, reverting to his old sins of name-dropping a bunch of (wise, old,) dead, white guys almost all the time. It’s Kaldor here and Verdoorn there. The silver lining is that it resulted in quite an interesting discussion about how to respond when the R-word (recession) is communicated by the NBER’s business cycle dating committee. (Btw, shouldn’t every country have one of those?)

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On a Slow Boat to China

The US-China trade negotiations have put the strength of the Chinese economy firmly back in focus. How bad is it? – That’s what Roger tries to find out this week.

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Pundits Dropping in a Half-pipe

There have been a few changes in perspective when it comes to the economic and financial outlook this year. Roger takes a look at the latest PMI figures and wonders if the pundits will do yet another 180 this year.

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Working in the Coal Mine

This week, Roger has been moving some sixteen terabytes of data working in the code mine where he nonetheless unearthed a couple of charts highlighting how the US administration’s attempts to increase coal production are panning out.

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By the Way

Is the Phillips-relation non-linear, and is it possible to utilize this relationship in current tight labor markets to jump-start inflation?

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Running a “High-Pressure” Economy

This week, Roger returns to a subject that he has delved into many a time in this forum, the Phillips-curve. But instead of discussing whether it is dead, dormant or alive and kicking he goes looking for evidence that running a “high-pressure” economy is good policy. How does this relate to the current economic policy debate? – Well, read on!

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