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Today on the blog, Dr. Alex Joiner, chief economist at IFM Investors and esteemed Macrobond user, shares his monthly economic report with us. In short, global trade tensions have been a key focus of global markets, with ongoing risks being interpreted differently by bond and equity markets that both rallied strongly. Faced with subdued inflationary pressures and downside risks to growth, advanced economy central banks have almost unanimously ‘doubled down’ on their dovish tone with markets now pricing in further policy easing.
This week, Roger revisits and mass-produces the graph that’s been getting the most attention from a recent post. It’s not one of his own, but Branko Milanovic’s ‘elephant graph’, which Roger now expands to a host of former colonies. Well, imitation is the highest form of flattery.
This week, Roger has been quite unbearable at the office, reverting to his old sins of name-dropping a bunch of (wise, old,) dead, white guys almost all the time. It’s Kaldor here and Verdoorn there. The silver lining is that it resulted in quite an interesting discussion about how to respond when the R-word (recession) is communicated by the NBER’s business cycle dating committee. (Btw, shouldn’t every country have one of those?)
This week, Roger returns to a subject that he has delved into many a time in this forum, the Phillips-curve. But instead of discussing whether it is dead, dormant or alive and kicking he goes looking for evidence that running a “high-pressure” economy is good policy. How does this relate to the current economic policy debate? – Well, read on!