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The Week Ahead in Charts – Week of July 13th, 2020

This chart pack covers the macroeconomic highlights that we’re looking forward to this week. All of the charts below are published including data as of Friday the 3rd of July. To make sure you always have the latest data included in your favorite chart, click the button below the chart to add it to your own watchlist in Macrobond Live. You can save up to 20 charts for free for as long as you like, and you can switch them out depending on which you find most interesting for the moment.

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Market Monetarism – Part 2

In my previous blog post, I explained some of the core tenets of market monetarism, and also described the NGDP gap from the Mercatus Center, which we just added in Macrobond. In what follows, I will show some alternative data, including prediction markets, that market monetarists use and that we also have in Macrobond.

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Market Monetarism – Part 1

Just this week we added the nominal GDP gap from the Mercatus Center to the Macrobond database. This series is a crucial indicator for market monetarists.
For the uninitiated, the Danish economist Lars Christensen wrote a paper almost a decade ago about a new school of thought within macroeconomics that he called market monetarism. The label quickly caught on and has stuck ever since.

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Phillips Curve Musings

A few months ago, I wrote a draft version of a blog post on the US Phillips curve. One of the advantages of using Macrobond is that all my charts get updated automatically when new data is out, so no additional work there. However, my writing does not. The current Corona shock has been so unprecedented that it has distorted a lot of economic data, including the Phillips curve relationship. Let’s have a look!

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Fat Tails and Asymmetric Shocks Part 2: Economics

One of the key assumptions in modern macroeconomics theory is that shocks are symmetric. Conventional macro suggests that output evolves along a path of exponential growth and that the business cycle is the result of exogenous shocks that disturb the system. Moreover, the economy is assumed to be stabilizing so that it returns to equilibrium after the initial shock has propagated through the system. Over time, the law of large numbers suggests that the economic system is equally likely to be hit by a positive or negative shock. Therefore, deviations from trend output should a priori follow a normal distribution.

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