Economic insights, inspiring analyses, and beautiful charts, all powered by Macrobond

Yield Curves: Nominal and Real

The modern business cycle in advanced economies is mostly about nominal shocks that are being transmitted to the real economy. In this post, I look at the real yield curve; nominal yields adjusted for inflation (and inflation expectations).

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Why Method Matters in Calculating Growth Rates

What is the Chinese GDP growth rate? What is the US GDP growth rate? Actually, the answer to these two questions is the same: Well, it depends on how you calculate it! This is a short note on growth rates which was inspired by a blog post from Scott Sumner and by recent discussions about Q2 GDP growth.

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The Week Ahead in Charts – Week of July 27th, 2020

This chart pack covers the macroeconomic highlights that we’re looking forward to this week. All of the charts below are published including data as of Friday the 3rd of July. To make sure you always have the latest data included in your favorite chart, click the button below the chart to add it to your own watchlist in Macrobond Live. You can save up to 20 charts for free for as long as you like, and you can switch them out depending on which you find most interesting for the moment.

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Macro Forecast Miscellany

This blog post gathers a few macroeconomic forecasts for the current and upcoming years from different sources and tries to piece together a view of what we may have ahead of us in terms of GDP growth, output gaps, and inflation.

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The Week Ahead in Charts – Week of July 20th, 2020

This chart pack covers the macroeconomic highlights that we’re looking forward to this week. All of the charts below are published including data as of Friday the 3rd of July. To make sure you always have the latest data included in your favorite chart, click the button below the chart to add it to your own watchlist in Macrobond Live. You can save up to 20 charts for free for as long as you like, and you can switch them out depending on which you find most interesting for the moment.

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The Week Ahead in Charts – Week of July 13th, 2020

This chart pack covers the macroeconomic highlights that we’re looking forward to this week. All of the charts below are published including data as of Friday the 3rd of July. To make sure you always have the latest data included in your favorite chart, click the button below the chart to add it to your own watchlist in Macrobond Live. You can save up to 20 charts for free for as long as you like, and you can switch them out depending on which you find most interesting for the moment.

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Market Monetarism – Part 2

In my previous blog post, I explained some of the core tenets of market monetarism, and also described the NGDP gap from the Mercatus Center, which we just added in Macrobond. In what follows, I will show some alternative data, including prediction markets, that market monetarists use and that we also have in Macrobond.

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Market Monetarism – Part 1

Just this week we added the nominal GDP gap from the Mercatus Center to the Macrobond database. This series is a crucial indicator for market monetarists.
For the uninitiated, the Danish economist Lars Christensen wrote a paper almost a decade ago about a new school of thought within macroeconomics that he called market monetarism. The label quickly caught on and has stuck ever since.

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Phillips Curve Musings

A few months ago, I wrote a draft version of a blog post on the US Phillips curve. One of the advantages of using Macrobond is that all my charts get updated automatically when new data is out, so no additional work there. However, my writing does not. The current Corona shock has been so unprecedented that it has distorted a lot of economic data, including the Phillips curve relationship. Let’s have a look!

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