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2018-12-12Data

Your Overview of Data Additions

U.S. Oil Price Dynamics, Weather statistics for Australia, and Manufacturing PMI Abroad for Switzerland

United States: Oil Price Dynamics

We’ve added data from the Oil Price Dynamics Report built by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This weekly report examines what’s behind recent fluctuations in oil prices: demand factors, supply factors, or some combination of the two.

Three variants of this Report are available:

  • Recent: Measures the dynamics since the beginning of the previous quarter
  • 2010-Today: Measures the dynamics since the beginning of 2010
  • 1986-Today: Measures the dynamics since the beginning of 1986

In the chart below, we displayed the dynamics of the oil price since 2010. While demand and residuals have always had a positive impact on oil prices, supply seems to be the current factor pushing oil prices down.

 

Australia: Weather Statistics

For Australia, we’ve added more weather statistics: precipitations, sunshine, as well as highest / lowest temperature reached during a day. The data is broken down per region and main cities.

The chart below focuses on Sydney. The underlying data used describes the highest temperature reached during one day. The series is daily, starting in 1859.

We used the Slice analysis to cut this series into one series for each year (159 so far). We then ran a Cross Section analysis on these 159 series, to calculate:

  • An average between 1859 to 1950
  • 20th and 80th percentiles between 1859 to 1950
  • An average since 1990.

What you’ll see is that the highest average temperature reached during one day since 1990 is very close to the 80th percentile of the period 1859-1950. It is actually higher during the winter season (days #145 to #225)

 

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI Abroad

For Switzerland, we’ve just added Manufacturing PMI Abroad, also known as the export-weighted PMI, and estimated by the SNB (Swiss National Bank).

The export-weighted PMI is a leading indicator of the development of manufacturing in the key destination countries for Swiss exports. It is constructed based on the aggregated export-weighted foreign manufacturing PMIs of 27 of Switzerland’s trading partners. The result is a composite indicator that tracks economic activity abroad from the perspective of Switzerland.

In the chart below, we compared this leading indicator with the Swiss Exports. Exports have been first transformed as a 12-month rolling sum, and then expressed as year-on-year % change. We then ran a Correlation analysis to estimate the best lag correlation, which is 9 months, and finally pushed forward the PMI to this optimal lag.

 

Data by Country/Region

 

World:

 

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