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2018-10-31Data

Your Overview of Data Additions

ICE Permian WTI Crude Oil Futures, the probability that the US President will finish his 1st term, and CPI range per household expenditures for Hong-Kong

World: ICE Permian WTI Crude Oil Futures

We’ve just added Permian Crude Oil Futures from the InterContinental Exchange (ICE). The ICE futures exchange has recently started trading a new crude oil contract called "Permian WTI Crude" that lets traders buy US shale oil from the Permian shale oil fields. What makes this contract special is that the contract specification stipulates physical delivery of crude in Houston, Texas which means this contract has the potential to become the default industry benchmark for shale oil.

In the chart below, we created the Futures curve for these contracts. As they are very new, volumes haven’t started to take off yet after the 3rd rolling position (in the chart below, the 3rd position represents the contract for February 2019).

United States: probability of the President finishing his 1st term

Over the past two weeks, we’ve added very specific data on U.S. politics from PredictWise: the market-based probability of the U.S. President to finish his first term.

In the chart below, we compared this probability with the 10-year U.S. Government Benchmark. We found out an optimal correlation, close to 0.93, when the 10-year yield is advanced by 19 observations. We reflected this on the chart by pushing forward the 10-year yield.

 

Hong-Kong: CPI per household expenditures range

For Hong-Kong, we’ve added specific CPI series, provided by the Hong Kong Census & Statistics Department (C&SD). CPI(A), CPI(B), and CPI(C), as well as their breakdowns, are compiled based on the expenditure patterns of households in the relatively low, medium and relatively high expenditure ranges. Total CPI reflects the impact of consumer price changes on the household sector as a whole. The CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) respectively cover some 50%, 30% and 10% of households in Hong Kong. The monthly household expenditure ranges (in HKD) of the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) adjusted to the price level of 2008 are broadly equivalent to $4,300-$16,800, $16,800-$30,200 and $30,200-$66,100 respectively.

In the chart below, we displayed three alternative measures of inflation.

 

Data additions by country/region

 

World

 

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