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2018-10-31Macro `n Cheese

Early bird

This week, Roger has opted for an early release of the blog as he built a tool for dissecting the upcoming US labor market data. This means there is less ranting (on Roger’s side) and more charting for us readers – A welcome change (according to Roger)!

Tools R’ Us

I must admit. I’m a bit surprised how often US labor market data is published. NFP Friday cannot possibly be coming up again, can it? I can’t tell if it’s just an aging mind or some grand conspiracy against my (slightly narcissistic) persona, but I know what I think is more probable.
Anyhow.

A few weeks ago, my colleague Alexander Pelle provided us with a great little tool for dissecting the PCE-deflator and this week I thought we could try and build something similar for labor market data. And, with our new Watchlist functionality being released later this week, these charts and your favorite analytical tools will be at your fingertips instantly when data is published. Ask your friendly Macrobond representative how to set it up or look out for our release notes tomorrow.

HH Survey data (All charts are part of one Macrobond document, which you can download via any of the below charts):

 

And this is the Establishment survey data (All charts are part of one Macrobond document, which you can download via any of the below charts):

 

Again, it’s just save these documents to your chart library (and watchlist!) and you’ll have a great tool to take you through this Friday’s NFP-data in no-time. However, once more details are available, you might also want to try to find out if there are any other quirks in the data. For this I have also set up a bar chart (the third .mbnd-document necessary to have all the charts) with what I think are the main sectors (or suspects, if you will) to look at:

 

 

And while we’re at it – let’s take a look at a similar chart for nominal average hourly earnings (AHE):

 

And, closing with a similar chart for real AHE:

 

Well, I think that’s it… – Hopefully, we will never feel unprepared again, however often they (!) throw NFP-Fridays on us.
That said, if you have any feedback or feel that I have left some important part out, don’t hesitate to reach out!

 

 

 

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Disclaimer

We don’t usually have views and opinions about economic and financial states of affairs, (not ones that we express publicly as a company, anyway). We do believe, however, that people can and do appreciate a variety of perspectives. What you’ve just read is the perspective of our resident chief economist. While we think he’s very smart, Macrobond Financial does not expressly endorse the views he presents here. And, as the old adage goes, you shouldn’t believe everything you read (not without finding the data, performing a few analyses and presenting it in a nice chart). We want to make it clear that we are not offering this information as investment advice. That being said, if you have the application you can easily check everything that’s mentioned here, and decide for yourself. If you don’t have the application, now you have a great reason to get it.