Macrobond updates

Bi-weekly data additions

Bi-weekly data additions: 09 - 20 May 2022

By 
Arnaud Lieugaut
 on 
May 23, 2022

Highlights

              

World

We have just added a high-frequency dataset from the U.N. Comtrade database: the Estimates of World Seaborne Trade in Real-Time

This daily frequency dataset aims to construct trade volume indicators by relying on AIS data. Automatic Identification System (AIS) is a maritime tracking system for vessels, providing information such as position, course, speed, and identification. The authors are transforming the raw AIS information into economic variables using machine-learning techniques to interpret the information.   

The working paper describing the methodology is available here: 

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/05/14/World-Seaborne-Trade-in-Real-Time-A-Proof-of-Concept-for-Building-AIS-based-Nowcasts-from-49393

Russia is an interesting use-case for this dataset since foreign trade statistics are not updated anymore by the local sources. Indeed, headline figures stop in February 2022. In the chart below, we compared the number of ‘port calls’ for exports and imports. While there is a sudden drop for both variables in the first weeks following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, trajectories are now different: ‘port calls’ for exports are going back to their pre-invasion levels while ‘port calls’ for exports remain low. All in all, this can suggest an increase of the Russian net seaborne foreign trade since the invasion.  

Macrobond users, access the chart here

Estimates of World Seaborne Trade in Real Time

Source & Release > World [world, Region] > United Nations International Trade Statistics Database (UN COMTRADE) > Estimates of World Seaborne Trade in Real Time [rel_comtrade2, Release]

Russia

Continuing with Russia, we’ve just added a Composite Leading Index (CLI) from the Center for Development Institute. 

In the chart below, we used the CLI index as a leading indicator for GDP growth. The most optimal correlation between the two variables happens when the CLI is pushed forward by 3 months. As the chart indicates, Russian GDP is likely to contract in Q2 based on current CLI trends. 

Macrobond users, access the chart here

Composite Leading Index

Country & Region > Russia [ru, Region] > Surveys & Leading Indicators [surv, Category] > Leading Indicators > National Research University Higher School of Economics

Mauritania

We have also expanded our data coverage for Mauritania, with the addition of the full balance of payments and its breakdowns, published by the central bank. 

In the chart below, we displayed the structure of the Mauritanian current account.

Macrobond users, access the chart here

Balance of Payments

Country & Region > Mauritania [mr, Region] > Balance of Payments [bopa, Category]

Philippines

We’ve added more granularity to the CPI breakdowns available for the Philippines. You can now navigate up to the finest level of component breakdowns.

In the chart below, we created a diffusion index using the 185 most granular sub-components and divided them between buckets of year-on-year growth rates. Headline inflation is now reaching 5% in the Philippines, but still half of the sub-components are increasing by less than 2% YoY. However, several sub-components are now increasing by more than 30%, counter-weighting the previous effect. 

Macrobond users, access the chart here

CPI sub-components by commodity group

Country & Region > Philippines [ph, Region] > Prices [pric, Category] > Consumer Price Index > 2018=100 > National > All Items

Complete list

Australia

CPI Points Contribution by Capital City, Group, Sub-Group & Expenditure Class

Country & Region > Australia [au, Region] > Prices [pric, Category] > Consumer Price Index > Regional

Bahamas

Tourism, Expenditures

Country & Region > Bahamas [bs, Region] > Tourism [tour, Category] > Expenditures

Tourism, Foreign Arrivals

Country & Region > Bahamas [bs, Region] > Tourism [tour, Category] > Arrivals

China

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Situation Daily Report, Asymptomatic COVID Cases by Region

Country & Region > China [cn, Region] > Demography [demo, Category] > Public Health > Diseases > Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) > China National Health Commission > By Region

R&D Expenditure, By Province

Country & Region > China [cn, Region] > Business Statistics [bust, Category] > Investments

Croatia

Retail Trade Value, SA

Country & Region > Croatia [hr, Region] > Trade [trad, Category] > Domestic Trade > Retail Trade > Retail Trade Turnover > Value

Italy

Import Price Index

Country & Region > Italy [it, Region] > Prices [pric, Category] > Import Price Index

Construction Survey - Assessments of Current Order Books, Balance

Country & Region > Italy [it, Region] > Surveys & Leading Indicators [surv, Category] > Business Surveys > ISTAT > Confidence Climate by Sector > Construction

Japan

Number of Households, by Household Size

Country & Region > Japan [jp, Region] > Demography [demo, Category] > Households > By Household Size

Mauritania

Balance of Payments

Country & Region > Mauritania [mr, Region] > Balance of Payments [bopa, Category]

Mongolia

Employment by Classification of Economic Activities

Country & Region > Mongolia [mn, Region] > Labor Market [lama, Category] > Employment

Production of Coal & Copper

Country & Region > Mongolia [mn, Region] > Production [prod, Category] > Industrial Production > By Commodity

Philippines

CPI sub-components by commodity group

Country & Region > Philippines [ph, Region] > Prices [pric, Category] > Consumer Price Index > 2018=100 > National > All Items

Russia

Composite Leading Index

Country & Region > Russia [ru, Region] > Surveys & Leading Indicators [surv, Category] > Leading Indicators > National Research University Higher School of Economics

Spain

Daily Price & Volume Index of Gas

Country & Region > Spain [es, Region] > Commodities & Energy [caes, Category] > Price at the End of the Day

Country & Region > Spain [es, Region] > Commodities & Energy [caes, Category] > Volume Traded

Taiwan

Interest Rates on Required Reserves

Country & Region > Taiwan [tw, Region] > Money, Banking & Credit [bank, Category] > Monetary Statistics > Interest Rates on Required Reserves

World

Comtrade

Estimates of World Seaborne Trade in Real Time

Source & Release > World [world, Region] > United Nations International Trade Statistics Database (UN COMTRADE) > Estimates of World Seaborne Trade in Real Time [rel_comtrade2, Release]