Back to all blogs
Blogs
January 17, 2021

Pandemic hits BRIC economic growth

We compare GDP growth in Brazil, Russia, India and China with the rest of the world
Share on LinkedIn
Share on X
In-house blogger
Guest blogger
Alfred Sadek
,
Product Specialist
Macrobond
All opinions expressed in this content are those of the contributor(s) and do not reflect the views of Macrobond Financial AB.
All written and electronic communication from Macrobond Financial AB is for information or marketing purposes and does not qualify as substantive research.
Editor:

Global Growth and BRIC Economies

An era of globalization that boosted economic growth in developing countries for many years is shifting to an era of deglobalisation with increased protectionism. Many success stories in the recent decades have followed upon growth in trade and exports. The big four developing economies of the 20th century are Brazil, Russia, India, and China, collectively known as the BRIC economies.

In this month’s chart, I have plotted the historical GDP quarterly growth rate of BRIC countries and the world GDP along with the annual GDP forecasts by the IMF WEO, World Bank and the EIU. The dots in the chart represent the average of the three forecasts for the year. Economic growth of the four countries centred around an export led growth model but with somewhat disparate characteristic. In the last two decades, China and India became major exporters of manufactured goods and services, while Brazil and Russia were driven largely by exports of raw materials. The appetite for natural resources by rapidly developing countries like China and India were an important factor in the commodity price boom from year 2000 up until 2014, benefiting the exporters of natural resources. As seen in the chart, the decline in raw material prices has also resulted in the weakening GDP growth from 2014 in Brazil and Russia.

The latest GDP figures show that the economic decline triggered by the global pandemic has affected all BRIC economies equally, but most substantially India with around 23,9% drop in GDP growth. Yet the average forecast points to -3,3% of annual GDP growth for 2020, higher than China, Brazil, Russia, and the world GDP. The annual GDP average forecast for 2022 has China leading with 8,0% followed by India’s 6,5%. Both Russia and Brazil are below the World GDP figure of 4,9% with 2,9% and 2,6% respectively. It is likely that the forecast might change as we are still in the midst of the ongoing Coronavirus pandemic. At the same time, we have many other uncertainties around the world with increasing protectionist policies and geopolitical challenges leading to the era of continued deglobalisation.

Close
Previous
Next
Close
Cookie consent
We use cookies to improve your experience on our site.
To find out more, read our terms and conditions and cookie policy.
Accept
Heading
This is some text inside of a div block.
Click to enlarge
Premium data
This chart integrates premium data from our world-leading specialist data partners (When viewing the chart in Macrobond, premium data sources will only display for premium data subscribers)
Learn more
https://www.macrobond.com/solutions/data#premium-data
Revision History
This chart features Macrobond’s unique Revision History data which shows how key macroeconomic indicators have been revised over time
Learn more
https://help.macrobond.com/tutorials-training/3-analyzing-data/analysis-tree/using-the-series-list/vintage-data/
Change Region
This chart benefits from Macrobond's unique Change Region feature which allows the same analysis to be instantly applied to different regions. Click on learn more to see it in action!
Learn more
/insights/tips-and-tricks/change-region-function